Russia's Arms Trends: military partnerships, exports, and tanks
Three main stories of March 2025.
A new assessment by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Armed Forces indicates that Russia sees itself in a systemic conflict with the West and is preparing for a major war with NATO. Russia's military economy is producing more than what is needed for the war in Ukraine. In 2025, Russia plans to spend 6.3% of its GDP on national defense.
Once a month, I publish a free digest on military developments in Russia. In this edition, I focus on the deepening military cooperation between Russia and its authoritarian partners. The decline in Russian arms exports, as reported by SIPRI, also deserves attention. Finally, I explore why Russia has been using fewer tanks on the battlefield—are its reserves running low, or is this a shift in tactics?
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Russia Deepens Military Cooperation with Allies (Belarus, North Korea, Iran, China)
Despite the United States’ efforts to encourage closer cooperation with Russia and potentially distance it from its adversarial allies, current developments in military cooperation suggest that these efforts are not working. It is important to highlight that Russia is able to sustain its war efforts against Ukraine, particularly due to the military support from its partners.
Russia is strengthening its strategic ties with China and Iran, highlighted by the Security Belt-2025 naval drills in the Gulf of Oman this month (March 2025). The Chinese naval fleet arrived near Iran’s Chabahar Port and joined the Iranian and Russian navies for the naval assembly. The joint exercises aim to boost military trust, featuring simulated maritime attacks, search-and-rescue operations, and interception drills. Additionally, China hosted high-level talks with Russia and Iran in Beijing to discuss Tehran’s nuclear program.
Russia and Belarus are developing cooperation in drone production and training. During the visit to Belarus, Russian authorities proposed a project to build a drone production facility to ensure the country’s security. The plant is expected to produce up to 100,000 drones per year once fully operational. Moscow and Minsk will discuss its location and other details. Belarus also steps up drone training in Russia. President Lukashenko said that specialists operating drones in the military and law enforcement should receive training in Russia on modern UAV deployment.
At least 287 Belarusian enterprises are producing weapons for Russia’s needs, according to an unpublished study by BelPol, cited by Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. BelPol has identified that Belarusian manufacturers produce 122mm rockets for the BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system, artillery shells, and more than 30 types of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), many of which have been tested in Ukraine.
Additionally, the country has localized the full production cycle for ammunition, manufactures storage and transport crates for shells, and produces military uniforms. The enterprises Integral and Planar are engaged in microchip production. By 2027-2028, according to BelPol, Belarusian enterprises could produce up to 300,000 Grad rockets, 450,000 artillery shells, and 100,000 UAVs.
Through these efforts, the Belarusian President positions himself as an indispensable ally of the Kremlin, securing his own political survival.
A meeting took place between the delegations of the defense ministries of Iran and Belarus, during which the parties agreed to expand military cooperation. The Iranian delegation confirmed its readiness to deepen cooperation, particularly in the area of technology transfer. Belarus is already using Iranian-made weapons - Shahed-136 drones.
Russia continues to strengthen its bilateral relations with North Korea, despite growing warnings from the United States against deeper Russian-North Korean cooperation. According to the most recent reports, North Korea appears to have sent at least 3,000 more soldiers to Russia early this year, South Korea’s military said. Pyongyang has also sent a “significant amount” of short-range ballistic missiles and about 220 pieces of 170-millimeter self-propelled howitzers and 240-millimeter multiple rocket launchers. These contributions are expected to increase according to the situation. On March 27, North Korean state media reported that Pyongyang tested domestically produced drones aided by artificial intelligence (AI).
Russia was the third-largest arms exporter in the world after the United States and France in 2020–2024, accounting for 7.8% of global arms exports. Russia’s arms exports declined by 64% between 2015–2019 and 2020–2024.
In 2024, the volume of Russian arms exports remained at approximately the same level as in 2023, which was 47% lower than in 2022. This decline since 2022 is likely due to Russia’s decision to prioritize the production of major arms for its own armed forces over exports, the impact of multilateral trade sanctions imposed on Russia, and increased pressure from the United States and its allies on countries to avoid purchasing Russian arms.
Between 2020 and 2024, Russia delivered major arms to 33 states. Of its total arms exports, 74% went to states in Asia and Oceania, 12% to Africa, 7.4% to Europe (Armenia, Belarus, and Serbia), and 6.4% to the Middle East. Two-thirds of Russia’s arms exports during this period were concentrated in three countries: India (38%), China (17%), and Kazakhstan (11%).
According to the Congressional Research Service report published back in 2021, Russia exported a variety of weaponry, including legacy and advanced aircraft, air defense systems, naval vessels and submarines, radars, missiles, tanks, armored vehicles, small arms, and artillery. According to official Russian statistics, aircraft made up 50% of Russian arms exports.
Russia is one of three countries currently producing fifth-generation stealth fighters, alongside China and the United States. Recently, Russia offered its Su-57E to India—not only for purchase but also for local production—entering into competition with the U.S., which is reviewing its policy on releasing fifth-generation fighters to India.
According to Russian officials, Russia and India have more than 200 joint defence projects. India emerged in the 2000s as by far the largest foreign client for Russian defence exports. The Indian Armed Forces fielded many signature Russian weapons systems in larger numbers than the Russian Armed Forces themselves in peacetime, including T-72 and T-90 tanks, modernised MiG-29 fighters, and Su-30 fighters. The developments of the T-90, the MiG-29M, and the Su-30 were very heavily facilitated by Indian orders, as the post-Soviet Russian defence sector lacked the funding needed to realise these programs.
However, in recent years India has sharply reduced orders for defence equipment from Russia and is now buying more from Western suppliers, most notably France, Israel, and the US. According to reports, some of India and Russia’s plans, such as a project to jointly develop and manufacture helicopters and advanced fighter jets, were shelved some time ago. A separate proposal to lease a nuclear-powered submarine from Russia to train Indian crew is also unlikely to move forward.
Is Russia Running Out of Tanks or Shifting Tactics? (Stefan Korshak for The Kyiv Post + other sources)
In February, Ukraine’s Army General Staff (AGS) registered the 10,000th enemy tank claimed destroyed in combat. Most analysts estimate that two out of three Russian tanks, on average, have been taken out by a Ukrainian drone.
However, the number of Russian tanks destroyed on the battlefield has been decreasing with time. Ukrainian troops in March 2025 destroyed about half the number of Russian tanks they did in March 2024 (192 vs. 376).
Troops are seeing fewer Russian tanks committed to attacks, leading to fewer Russian tanks destroyed. Eyewitness accounts tell of a Russian shift in tactics that, instead of tanks, now prefers light armored vehicles or even civilian automobiles or motorcycles to heavy armor for an assault.
Analysis of daily Russian losses by Ragnar Gudmundsson found that, over the course of the war, the lion’s share (50-70%) of tanks used by the Russians are mid-Cold War-era T-72 tanks, or early Cold-War-era T-62 tanks, or even museum piece T-55 tanks pulled from mothballs and sent to the battlefield.
Over the past six months, the relative numbers of older tanks participating in Russian attacks have contracted sharply, pointing to diminishing Russian tank reserves or increased Kremlin unwillingness to send reserve tanks into combat.
Ukrainian drone swarms, particularly FPV drones, had forced the Russian military to reduce the number of armored vehicles it was fielding, and kill rates are falling because fewer and fewer Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles seem willing to drive out into the open.
Recently, it was reported that the Russian military received the first batches of modernized T-72B3 tanks in the 2024 version with better armor protection. Compared to previous iterations of improvements, the new vehicle’s dynamic protection overlap has increased in the area, which should improve protection primarily against high-precision FPV drone strikes at vulnerable points in the tank.
During the event “Human Domain Lessons from Russia-Ukraine | Conflict in Focus” hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the panel discussed the challenges of tank use in modern warfare.
Ben Connable argued that there is no doubt that tanks still play a critical role on the battlefield. They continue to fulfill their historical functions—providing shock, speed, and mobile-protected firepower up to the line of contact. While poor tactics are evident on both sides and often contribute to losses, the rate of tank losses in the Ukraine war is significantly lower on a day-to-day basis than in most previous wars. In fact, losses are about 38 to 39 times lower than during the 1973 war and far lower than in the Gulf War.
Lt. Gen. David Barno added that one of the biggest challenges is the cost disparity between destroying a tank and the cost of the tank itself. How many tanks, each costing several million dollars, can be sustained if they can be taken out by swarms of mass-produced drones costing just $1,000 apiece?
Analysts from Defense Express suggest that it is essential to assess not only the formal cost of drones and tanks as weapon systems but also the time required to produce the necessary quantity of these UAVs, as well as the estimated cycle for restoring or repairing main battle tanks after sustaining combat damage.
Additional developments:
Defense Intelligence of Ukraine revealed that Russia continues to maintain a robust missile production program. Russia’s priorities include the Kh-101 and Kalibr units, which have been integral to Russia’s arsenal. In addition to these, Russia is also investing heavily in the production of the Iskander missile system. The emphasis on the Iskander production is aimed at achieving enhanced accuracy and increased destructive power, a critical component of modern warfare strategies. Hypersonic missiles, such as the Kinzhal and Zircon units, are also at the forefront of Russia’s military technology development.
Russian missile production has reportedly not significantly increased, but Russian forces appear to be prioritizing the production of missile and drone variants that are more effective against Ukrainian air defenses.
ISW previously assessed that Russia likely intended to further increase its production and use of Shahed drones and other Shahed-variants following the signing of the Russian-Iranian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement in January 2025. Russian forces continue to innovate their strike packages and leverage larger numbers of Shahed and decoy drones in an attempt to penetrate Ukraine's air defence umbrella.
Russia will strengthen its military and logistics presence in the Arctic, including boosting its fleet of nuclear icebreakers and the number of servicemen in the region, Putin said at the International Arctic Forum in Murmansk on March 27. Despite Western sanctions and tensions, he expressed his readiness for cooperation. Read my older newsletter about Russia in the Arctic.
Russia started to strengthen its ties with the new Syrian government by offering support. One of the first signs of improving relations between the two nations was Russia’s transfer of approximately $23 million in Syrian currency to the country’s central bank. Also, in March, Russia shipped its Arctic oil to Syria for the first time.
Meanwhile, Russian tactical aircraft continue to operate from Syrian air bases. Recently, France accused a Russian Su-35 fighter of dangerous maneuvers near its Reaper UAV during flights over the Mediterranean Sea.
Very much appreciated Olena, excellent detail 👍