Russia's Arms Trends: growing cooperation with India, Sudan, and military expansion in the Arctic
Three main stories of the week: 8 - 14 Feb. 2025
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“The threat that I worry the most about vis a vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s ... the threat from within,” said the US Vice President Vance at the Munich Security Conference. Well, I can name at least five threats from Russia just in the past week, including increased military spending, an agreement to open a military base in Sudan, joint drone development and production with India, expansion in the Arctic, and espionage at a German airbase. And what about the strike on Reactor 4 at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant with a Shahed drone?
The new public post is ready for your attention.
Russian threats to Estonia, other NATO members, and the West - Estonian intelligence report
Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) assessed that Russia is working to strengthen its capabilities not only to support its war effort in Ukraine but also to prepare for a potential future conflict with NATO. This aligns with ISW's assessments, which highlight ongoing Russian efforts to ready its military and society for a possible confrontation with NATO in the medium to long term.
Key points from the report:
Russia continues to mobilise resources and rebuild its mass army. By 2025, Russia is expected to form additional divisions and combat support and service support units in the Leningrad and Moscow military districts.
Despite combat losses, Russia has sufficient resources to not only recover but also expand and modernise its armed forces.
Russia is committed to advancing drone technology and integrating drones extensively into its armed forces. Drone production in Russia remains dependent on Western components. The development and production of drones are very likely a top priority for Russia, as demonstrated by the launch of a national drone development project, which is divided into five federal subprojects (stimulating demand for domestically produced drones; standardising the drone industry and ensuring mass production; developing drone industry infrastructure, safety assurance and certification processes; securing qualified personnel for the drone sector; and advancing cutting-edge drone technologies).
Russia seeks to restore Moscow’s control over most of the South Caucasus to gain access to strategic infrastructure in the region. One of the keys to achieving this is the subjugation of Georgia. Controlling the South Caucasus would provide Russia with access to strategic infrastructure – railways, roads and ports. Subjugating Georgia would be a two-for-one deal for Russia: take Tbilisi, and Yerevan comes with it.
In the Gulf region, Russia concentrates on strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – the regional powerhouses – to counter the economic and diplomatic isolation caused by sanctions and to spread its narratives about the war in Ukraine. The UAE has become a hub for Russian economic activity, offering opportunities for business and sanctions evasion, alongside relatively frequent political, military, and intelligence interactions.
China views Ukraine as part of Russia’s sphere of influence but only provides selective support to Russia in the information war, guided by its own strategic interests. For China, Russia’s defeat in the war against Ukraine would represent a victory for its main rival, the United States.
The Chinese Communist Party uses scientific collaboration as a tool to acquire Western technology and strengthen its capabilities. Collaborating with China on research projects requires a heightened focus on knowledge security to prevent sensitive information and technology from reaching Chinese research institutions, which could pass it on to Chinese businesses or the military sector.
Lessons from cyber warfare: strong cryptography is critical. Russian special services actively seek access to critical information of their perceived enemies, both classified and unclassified. Russian special services continuously attempt to penetrate systems containing sensitive information. During Russia’s war against Ukraine, these efforts have also targeted systems used by Ukraine’s Armed Forces, such as the Delta situational awareness platform.
Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) also published a declassified intelligence report and assessed that Russia may have the capabilities to launch a full-scale war against NATO in the next five years.
India buys Russian anti-ship missiles and negotiates additional supplies
Last week, India signed a deal with Russia to acquire anti-ship cruise missiles for its submarine fleet. The Indian Ministry of Defence announced the agreement but did not disclose details about the missile type, order quantity, cost, or delivery timeline.
According to Russian state media TASS, citing an Indian news outlet, the missiles are expected to equip the Indian Navy’s Sindhughosh-class diesel-electric submarines, which are based on Russia’s Kilo-class design.
Additionally, Russia has proposed manufacturing its fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, the Sukhoi Su-57, in India for the Indian Air Force. A Russian and an Indian official confirmed the offer, as reported by Reuters.
Both countries are also considering cooperation in drone development and production. Media representative of Rosoboronexport told FinancialExpress.com on the sidelines of Aero India 2025, “A key area of focus will be the development of UAVs, utilizing Russia’s extensive experience in high-intensity combat operations and counteraction against modern air defence systems.”
Background:
India was the world’s biggest arms importer in 2019–23 with a 9.8 per cent share of all arms imports.
Russia has long been India's primary arms supplier, with its fighter jets forming a key part of India's military fleet. However, the war in Ukraine has weakened Moscow’s ability to export. India’s reliance on Russian defense imports has dropped significantly, from 76% in 2009 to 36% in 2023. This shift reflects India's efforts to diversify its military procurement, increasing purchases from Western countries like France and the U.S.
With Russia’s military focused on Ukraine and its defense industry prioritizing domestic needs, delays have affected deliveries of the remaining S-400 missile defense system units and spare parts for existing Russian weapons in India's arsenal.
Deepening Russia-China ties are a problem for India. Beijing had become Moscow's top trading partner and expanded military cooperation through joint naval drills and exercises. China has also acquired advanced Russian weapons, including S-400 missile systems and SU-35 fighter jets.
India's shift toward diversification should not be mistaken for a move away from Russian arms. The Indian military still heavily relies on Russian equipment, including T-72 and T-90 tanks; SU-30 MKI, MiG-29, and MiG-29K fighter jets; KA-31 helicopters; the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier; and Akula and Kilo-class submarines.
Interestingly, many Indian navy ships are powered by gas turbines from the Ukrainian company Zorya-Mashproekt. In December 2024, Russia delivered the INS Tushil frigate, ordered by India in 2016. The frigate reportedly uses engines made by a Ukrainian company. India had to physically procure these engines from Ukraine and have them delivered to Russia before they could be installed on this warship.
According to Bloomberg sources, Ukraine’s state-owned Zorya-Mashproekt is in talks with Indian private sector companies to jointly manufacture gas turbines used by warships. The two countries are also discussing manufacturing aircraft and aero-engines in India.
The dual focus of India’s defense cooperation was highlighted by the appearance of artillery shells sold by Indian arms makers in Ukraine in 2024. Italy and the Czech Republic, which led an initiative to send artillery shells to Kyiv from outside the European Union, were among the European countries involved in the transfer.
The Arctic as a potential conflict zone: Russia’s military presence in the region
Recently, The Wall Street Journal published a report, “See How Russia Is Winning the Race to Dominate the Arctic,” detailing how Russia is expanding its presence in the Arctic in cooperation with China, while North America lags behind in military infrastructure in its far North.
After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the U.S. reduced its bases in Alaska, and Russia’s Arctic forces fell into decline. During this period, both countries cooperated on environmental issues, fisheries, and maritime safety.
Now, rising tensions are driving Russia and NATO to reinforce their military presence in the region. “The Arctic is a region for potential future conflict,” Russia’s Commander of the Northern Fleet, Aleksandr Moiseyev, stated at a recent Arctic conference in St. Petersburg.
According to a CNN report published in 2021, Russia has been refurbishing Soviet-era airfields and radar installations since at least 2013, constructing new ports and search-and-rescue centers, and expanding its fleet of nuclear- and conventionally powered icebreakers. It has also been strengthening its anti-access and area-denial capabilities by expanding its network of air and coastal defense missile systems across key parts of the Arctic.
For example, the military observation post and radar station on Kotelny Island were largely abandoned after the Soviet Union's dissolution. However, redevelopment began in 2013, leading to the expansion of the Temp airfield. The runway is now accompanied by another "trefoil" military base complex, reinforcing Russia's strategic presence in the region.
Russia has increasingly opened its Arctic territory to Beijing, as China has helped prop up the Russian economy and supplied dual-use equipment to bolster its military.
China has long sought a greater role in the Arctic, viewing melting ice as both an economic opportunity and a security challenge. In 2018, it declared itself a “near-Arctic” nation and an “important stakeholder in Arctic affairs.”
In July, two Russian and two Chinese bombers flew together near Alaska, prompting U.S. and Canadian fighter jets to intercept them. Meanwhile, both countries are deploying advanced missiles capable of flying much farther than their predecessors—at speeds up to five times the speed of sound—posing a challenge to America’s existing sensor systems.
As sea ice retreats, the number of high-latitude voyages through the Arctic has increased, turning the region into a zone of intense commercial competition. Russia-China cooperation has been particularly prominent, with Chinese companies playing a key role as investors and equipment suppliers in Russian energy projects, including the Yamal LNG and Arctic 2 LNG projects.
In return, Russia has been shipping fuel to China using its so-called shadow fleet—sanctioned vessels that make illicit deliveries of Russian oil to Asian markets. In 2024, transit cargo through the Northern Sea Route, from northwestern Russia to the Bering Strait, reached a record high. Meanwhile, melting sea ice is easing access to critical minerals, with Russia leading efforts to tap into Arctic resources.
According to the Wall Street Journal, NORAD—the joint U.S.-Canada command focused on the North Pole—relies on an outdated surveillance network of satellites, ground-based radar, and air force bases. To bolster their presence, the U.S. and Canada plan to acquire more icebreakers, but their current fleet is limited. The U.S. has only three polar icebreakers, one of which is 50 years old and another that was sidelined last year due to an onboard fire.
In contrast, Russia operates three dozen icebreakers, many of them nuclear-powered, providing greater endurance and power at sea. China, despite being more than 900 miles from the Arctic Circle, deployed three polar icebreakers to the region last year.
Another crucial topic is the use of unmanned aircraft, which provide critical intelligence and strike capabilities in the Arctic. According to Reuters, NATO countries are working to catch up with Russia in drone technology. A Reuters survey of 14 companies and six defense ministries and armed forces across northern Europe and North America highlights an industry racing to develop or acquire drones capable of enduring extreme Arctic conditions.
Meanwhile, Russia has already made significant advancements. Zala Aero, a subsidiary of the Kalashnikov Group, offers drones specifically designed for Arctic operations. Additionally, Russia has stated that its long-range S-70 Okhotnik combat drone, which can operate at temperatures as low as -12°C, will be deployed in the region.
Other news:
Russian defence spending exceeds all of Europe combined - the Financial Times reported. Russian defense spending surged by 42 percent last year in real terms, reaching Rbs13.1tn, or $462bn based on purchasing power parity, which accounts for the value of currencies in their home countries. In comparison, European defense budgets, including the UK and EU member states, increased by nearly 12 percent to $457bn — just under Moscow’s spending.
The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimated that Russia lost 1,400 main battle tanks (roughly four tank divisions' worth) and over 3,700 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and armored personnel carriers (APCs) — totaling 5,100 lost tanks and armored vehicles in 2024. ISS assessed that Russia refurbished and built over 1,500 tanks and 2,800 IFVs and APCs in 2024 — suggesting that Russia produced enough vehicles to replace all of its tank losses and three quarters of its armored vehicle losses last year.
The German military is investigating suspected Russian espionage after six drone sightings over an airbase in the northern town of Schwesing, where Ukrainian soldiers are trained on Patriot missile defense systems. Between Jan. 9 and 29, unidentified drones repeatedly entered restricted airspace above the Luftwaffe facility in Schwesing. Despite deploying electronic countermeasures, including the HP47 jammer, Bundeswehr forces failed to bring them down or locate their operators.
Russia appears to be leveraging the technological innovations it is developing in its war in Ukraine directly against NATO states - ISW. Reports that a NATO member state is struggling to combat likely Russian reconnaissance drones demonstrate the need for NATO states to further develop their defensive capabilities as Russia continues to use its experience on the battlefield in Ukraine to innovate new technologies.
In December 2024, the Kaluga Research Institute of Radio Engineering (KNIRTI), which produces systems for aircraft of the Sukhoi Design Bureau, signed contracts for RUB 720 million ($7.4 million) to import equipment from the German company Rohde & Schwarz and the American company Keysight - Militarny reported. The bulk of the equipment is to be manufactured in Germany, the Czech Republic and Malaysia by the international concern Rohde & Schwarz, headquartered in Munich.
Algeria is to be the launch export customer for Russia's Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon' combat aircraft. Algerian media reported that up to 14 examples of the Su-57E export version of the ‘fifth-generation' fighter had been acquired, seemingly firming up Russian pronouncements in 2024 that a first buyer had been secured.
Sudan said a final deal has been agreed with Russia to establish a naval base on its Red Sea coast. Moscow has for years sought to establish a base near Port Sudan. The port agreement, which was to last for 25 years, had been for Russia to establish a naval logistics hub, with warships including nuclear-powered vessels, and up to 300 personnel. The Red Sea provides a strategic route that is vital to global commerce as well as a defence and geopolitical hotspot.
Zelensky said that Russia may be preparing an act of aggression against NATO members as early as next year. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, he said the attack might come from Belarus: “Russia is preparing 15 divisions. Around 100-150,000 troops are being trained to aggravate the situation on the Belarus direction”.
Ukrainian emergency services have confirmed the discovery of Shahed drone debris at the site of a Russian strike on the shelter of Reactor 4 at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The attack, which occurred overnight on February 14, did not cause an increase in radiation levels, according to officials.