Russia's Arms Trends: increasing missile and drone production and expanding global reach
Key developments of June, 2025
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Russia is producing as much ammunition in just three months as NATO does in an entire year and could be ready to use military force against the Alliance within five years, the NATO Secretary General has warned.
According to figures provided by Ukraine, Russia has increased its ballistic missile production by 66% over the past year, already surpassing the total production of air defense missiles for Patriots. When you add drone capabilities, currently at a production rate of 2,000 Shahed-type drones per month, with plans to increase to 5,000 per month, this creates a recipe for disaster not only for Europe but for the entire world.
In this newsletter, I provide an overview of how Russia is expanding its military presence simultaneously across multiple regions, including Africa and the Arctic.
This digest on Russia is open access — feel free to read and share! Thank you for reading and supporting my work!
Military Cooperation and Alliances
Russia’s cooperation with its allies is a two-way street: it not only receives weapons to sustain its war effort, but also transfers advanced military technologies, particularly those related to drone production.
The Commander of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, told The War Zone that Russia is supplying technology and expertise to North Korea to support the development of long-range kamikaze drones (Garpiya and Geran) and significantly improve the accuracy of North Korean KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles. This support also extends to helping Pyongyang advance its submarine-based nuclear deterrent.
Possessing Shahed-type drones would give North Korea the ability to strike targets anywhere in South Korea, and potentially in large volumes. These drones could overwhelm South Korea’s air defenses, clearing the way for follow-up attacks with other munitions. Additionally, they could be exported back to Russia to support its war effort in Ukraine.
According to reports, North Korea plans to send 25,000 workers to a Russian drone manufacturing plant in exchange for training in drone operations.
In early June, North Korea supplied Russian military forces with 140mm towed mortars, following the 60mm mortars.
Additional developments:
According to report “Russian Mercenary and Paramilitary Groups in Africa” by RAND, Russian mercenaries maintain an active presence in six African countries: Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya, Mali, Niger, and Sudan. These forces include a mix of Wagner Group operatives, Africa Corps personnel, and, in the case of Burkina Faso, a new paramilitary group known as Brigade Bear, which provides security services. In Chad and Mauritania, Russian mercenaries are carrying out “spillover operations”, crossing the borders from neighboring Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali.
Russian mercenaries serve as a key instrument through which Moscow seeks to counter its growing international isolation, both economic and political. However, the security situation in the countries where they operate is deteriorating. These groups often exploit instability for profit, worsening the very crises they claim to mitigate. GI-TOC prepared a great report, “After the Fall. Russian Influence on Africa’s Illicit Economies Post-Wagner”, and you can read its summary here.
The Russia-backed Wagner Group announced that it is leaving Mali after more than three and a half years of fighting Islamic extremists and insurgents there. However, Russia will still maintain a mercenary presence in the country. On the same day, the Africa Corps, Russia’s state-controlled paramilitary force, said that Wagner’s departure would not change anything, and Russian forces would remain in Mali.
Russia has been shipping weapons to conflict zones in West Africa in violation of international sanctions. According to the AP, Russian-flagged cargo ships transported howitzers, radio jammers, and other military equipment to a port in Guinea in late May, following a month-long journey from the Baltic Sea. Similar shipments arrived at the same port in January, carrying armored vehicles and tanks. Reportedly, the weapons delivered to Guinea were then carried in trucks to neighboring Mali.
Russia has been using a Chinese-made Silent Hunter laser to shoot down Ukrainian drones despite persistent claims from Beijing that it is not offering military support to Moscow. It is one of the most significant and sophisticated pieces of equipment that Russia has obtained from China during the three-year war on Ukraine.
Moscow is planning to deploy multiple Oreshnik missile systems to Belarus by the end of 2025. The "Oreshnik" is an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that Russia touts as an experimental weapon capable of bypassing advanced air defense systems.
Moscow offered India the Su-57E stealth fighter and full access to its source code. Such access would let India embed home-grown avionics and weapons under its Make-in-India drive. India is weighing the purchase of Russia’s Su-57 stealth fighter, drawn by promises of technology access and rapid delivery. However, strategic concerns, including Moscow’s deepening ties with China and India’s push for indigenous defense development, are complicating the decision.
Defense Production and Innovations
Russia’s production of ballistic missiles has increased by at least 66% over the past year, according to data from Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) shared with the Kyiv Independent. Moscow is now producing 60 to 70 Iskander-M — the ballistic version of the missile — and 10 to 15 hypersonic Kinzhals per month. This compares to a reported 40 Iskander-Ms in May 2024, and a reported 4–5 Kinzhals in April 2024.
If HUR's figures are correct, Russia’s production of ballistic missiles today outnumbers total production of PAC-3 MSE missiles for Patriot air defense systems, the preferred anti-ballistic defenses for much of Europe, which Lockheed Martin hopes to boost to 650 per year by 2027. “Other Western systems like the SAMP/T and IRIS-T have not proved effective against ballistic missiles”.
Additional developments:
Russia's weapons arsenal includes over 1,950 strategic missiles and thousands of drones, according to Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), including up to 500 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, as well as up to 150 hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. Moscow also has up to 60 North Korean-made KN-23 ballistic missiles.
In addition to ballistics, Russia possesses up to 300 Iskander-K cruise missiles, up to 260 Kh-101 cruise missiles, up to 280 Kh-22/Kh-32 cruise missiles, and over 400 Kalibr cruise missiles.
Open-source intelligence suggests that Russia is increasing its T-90M tank production capabilities. Georgia-based organization Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reported that Russia has been undertaking systemic efforts to increase tank production since before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and estimated that pre-war production rates and Russia's transition to a constant production schedule since 2022 have likely allowed Russia's primary tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod to produce 60 to 70 T-90M new tanks in 2022; 140 to 180 new tanks in 2023; and 250 to 300 new tanks in 2024.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister warned that Russia has begun preparing strategic military reserves, signaling plans for military operations that may extend beyond Ukraine.
Russia in the Arctic
The Kremlin is expanding its military presence in the Arctic and preparing a foothold for resource-driven expansion, — said a representative of Ukraine’s HUR.
A key tool in implementing Russia’s Arctic strategy is the state-owned Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute. Although officially tasked with “scientific objectives,” the institute is part of Moscow’s broader resource and military project, which aims to:
Conduct geological exploration of new gas and oil fields;
Analyze ice conditions in the Northern Sea to lay out shipping routes;
Model climate and oceanographic changes up to 2035 to support long-term regional exploitation.
Scientific expeditions organized by the institute study water temperature, current strength, wind dynamics, and forecast changes in ice coverage. All of this data has a dual purpose — for civilian use and for planning military operations and naval fleet movements.
At the same time, Russia is building up regional infrastructure: installing communications equipment, including satellite systems, which could be used to coordinate Arctic operations by Russia’s Northern Fleet and support the activities of unmanned systems.
“The world must be prepared for the fact that the Kremlin’s so-called ‘scientific initiatives’ are merely a cover for a new phase of Arctic militarization. The aggressor state is gradually turning the region into a platform for projecting power, controlling logistical routes, and gaining access to resources. If the international community continues to underestimate these developments, the Arctic could become the next flashpoint,” said Andrii Yusov, a representative of HUR.
Read more about Russia’s military expansion in the Arctic here.
Sanctions and Sanctions Evasion
Russia’s strategy for evading sanctions relies on leveraging countries that do not enforce these restrictions to buy and sell what they need, writes Eric Woods for Riddle. As a result, Russia has not only rebuilt its international trade with new partners but has also successfully sourced critical parts and components for military production despite sanctions.
Western governments have not applied as much diplomatic pressure as they might have on the key third countries that facilitate Russia’s sanctions evasion—countries that consider their trade with Russia entirely legal.
At present, the overwhelming majority of electronic components for Russia’s drone and missile program come from Hong Kong and Southern China. Beyond electronics, Russia’s military production lines rely on modern machine tools and advanced robotics. According to the investigation, the most important sources (in order of importance) for Russian acquisition of machine tools were Turkey, South Korea, the UAE, and China.
Zelensky stated that Russia continues to receive machine tools for its defense industry from abroad, including exports from eight Czech companies. According to The Insider, around 12 Czech equipment manufacturers supplied machinery to Russia in 2024.
Most of the metalworking equipment exports from the Czech Republic to Russia are routed through third countries, including Estonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Latvia. According to Russian customs data reviewed by The Insider, imports of Czech machine tools to Russia totaled $18 million in 2023 and $12 million in 2024.
Among the Czech manufacturers whose products ended up in Russia, at least 12 companies were identified. Three of them — Šmeral Brno, Varnsdorf, and TAJMAC-ZPS — accounted for the majority of the exports, totaling around $8 million.
A Ukrainian anti-corruption NGO, NAKO, has identified antennas supplied by an Irish Company, Taoglas, in the wreckage of Russian bombs. NAKO said the patch antenna arrays cost just $7 (€6.16) each and are an important component in allowing Russian bombs to evade Ukrainian jamming systems. They are part of the Kometa (comet) module being used to evade Ukrainian air defences. NAKO has concluded that Russia needs so many antennas for their UMPKs that it is cheaper and easier for them to import them from abroad.
Ukraine’s military intelligence analyzed the wreckage of Russia’s new Shahed drones equipped with AI-based targeting and identified that some components were sourced from third countries: United States – 65 components (Texas Instruments; Analog Devices; ON Semiconductor (ONSEMI) etc); China – 8 components (XLSEMI, WeEn Semiconductors, GigaDevice, EGmicro, and others); Switzerland – 8 components (STMicroelectronics, U-blox, TE Connectivity); Japan – 4 components (Toshiba, Renesas, Murata); Germany – 3 components (Infineon Technologies, Pierburg); Taiwan – 3 components (Panjit, Winbond); Austria – 1 component (ams-OSRAM); South Korea – 1 component (RN2 Technologies); Netherlands – 1 component (NXP Semiconductors); unknown origin – 3 components. I wrote about these AI-equipped Shaheds here.
Nuclear Russia
On June 1, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) carried out Operation Spiderweb, disabling 34% of Russia’s cruise missile bomber fleet and inflicting an estimated $7 billion in damage.
This development sparked widespread concern that the attack may have crossed significant thresholds, potentially marking a dangerous escalation due to its impact on Russia’s nuclear delivery capabilities.
As nuclear strategy expert Fabian Hoffmann writes in his Substack, currently, Russia is estimated to deploy around 1,600–1,700 strategic nuclear warheads on approximately 700 strategic nuclear delivery systems. Russia maintains its strategic bomber fleet as fully dual-capable, without dividing it into separate "nuclear" and "conventional" sub-fleets. Among the three legs of its nuclear triad, the air-based leg is the smallest: “it accounts for only about 10 percent of strategic nuclear delivery vehicles, which are supposed to deliver around 11 percent of Russian strategic nuclear warheads in case of a major nuclear confrontation”. From an escalation management perspective, targeting this component is considered less escalatory than striking more critical assets. For example, if Ukraine were to destroy a docked SSBN undergoing maintenance, it could significantly undermine Russia’s nuclear deterrent, given the essential operational role each SSBN plays in its strategic posture.
Additional developments:
Putin claimed that Russia possesses the world’s most advanced nuclear triad, stating that 95% of its strategic nuclear forces are equipped with modern weapons — the highest share globally, according to him. He directed officials to prioritise nuclear weapons as a cornerstone of Russia’s sovereignty in the new state armaments programme for 2027–2036.
Satellite images reveal that Russia expanded and modernized at least five nuclear-related facilities near European borders in recent years, Swedish broadcaster SVT reported. One of the most notable developments is in Kaliningrad, where the suspected nuclear weapons storage site has undergone significant reconstruction. In Novaya Zemlya, a remote Arctic archipelago long linked to Soviet-era nuclear testing, several new buildings have appeared, reinforcing its role as a potential site for future test activities.
Russian Drones
In the first two weeks of June alone, Russia launched as many long-range attack drones against Ukraine as it did during entire months in 2023.
On June 18, Ukrainian forces recovered debris from a Shahed drone equipped with an advanced camera, a computing platform with AI and machine learning capabilities, and a radio system that allows remote operation by the drone’s pilot. Some Shahed drones have also been upgraded with thermal imaging cameras, significantly enhancing their precision and overall effectiveness.
Additionally, Russian forces are reportedly using cheaply made drones, such as the Gerbera drone, to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems.
According to Ukraine’s HUR, Russia is now building about 2,000 Shahed type of drones per month, with plans to increase that to 5,000 per month. Russia is continually improving Shahed’s range, payload, connectivity, and attack patterns.
Putin stated that Russia is in the process of forming unmanned systems forces as a separate branch of the military, emphasizing the need for their rapid and high-quality deployment and development.
He added that the state armament program should focus on the development and integration of advanced digital technologies and artificial intelligence into weapon systems and military equipment. It should also promote the advancement of weapons based on new physical principles, as well as ground and maritime robotic platforms.
Russia has developed a new loitering munition called the V2U that, according to Ukrainian reports, can use AI to navigate and strike targets and may have a swarm capability. If these reports are true, the V2U marks a significant step forward in Russian autonomous drone development. The disclosed specifications of the V2U include:
electric motor, battery capacity: 34 A⋅h,
flight time: 1 hour,
cruising speed: 60 km/h.
There's also a new modification of this drone equipped with an internal combustion engine, increasing the range to 100 km. The core of V2U's brains is the Nvidia Jetson Orin — a ready-made modular solution for artificial intelligence from a world-leading developer and manufacturer of graphics processors, video cards, and other PC components.
Other News
Russia mobilizes around 40,000-45,000 men for its military every month, while Ukraine mobilizes about 25,000-27,000, President Zelensky said.
Putin ordered his military command to substantially enhance the combat capabilities of Russia’s ground forces.
Putin approved a new naval strategy aimed at fully restoring Russia's position as a leading global maritime power. Russia currently operates the world's third most powerful navy, according to most public rankings, behind China and the United States. However, the fleet has suffered a string of losses during the war against Ukraine, particularly in the Black Sea.
I wish the current administration of the U.S. would read your blog. Excellent reporting.
Thanks, very important report. Too many in western #Europe still underestimate #Russia
+ my hypothesis is that #European defense systems like Patriiot and IrisT are too expensive vs cheap Russian shaheds. And too hard to scale. #Europe must develop cheaper stopping systems