Russia's Arms Trends: cost-efficient Shahed drones, decreased military exports, and overestimated Su-57 jets
Three main stories of the week: 15 - 21 Feb. 2025
Despite Russia’s “readiness for peace,” as perceived by the Trump administration, it continued its attacks on Ukraine last week, targeting both the frontline and civilian areas with glide bombs, drones, and missiles. To put a few numbers into perspective: Russia’s military expenditure stands at 6.7% of its GDP, while defense budgets in European countries range from 1.3% to 4.1%. The Russian war machine operates 24/7, running on three shifts at its military facilities to produce the necessary weapons and ammunition. Russia’s military partnerships with Iran, North Korea, China, and Belarus are continually evolving, allowing its allies to gain valuable insights from the battlefield.
Even if there are developments in peace negotiations, the trends in Russia’s militarization will persist, and Russia will remain a threat to the democratic world.
Now, let’s explore the latest innovations and updates in the military realm that Russia contributed last week.
Russia continues hyping up its Su-57 fighter jet while its arms exports collapse by 92%
Following the fifth-generation showdown at the "Aero India 2025" biennial air show at Yelahanka Air Force Station, which began on Feb. 10, Russia has continued to hype up its Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting name: Felon), claiming that "Our Su-57 outperformed the American F-35 in the sky of Bengaluru."
The aircraft's manufacturer, Rostec, noted that at Aero India 2025, both the Su-57 and the F-35 performed flight demonstrations. During a nearly seven-minute flight, "the Su-57 performed more than 20 aerobatic maneuvers, including Pugachev’s Cobra, the Bell, the Barrel Roll, and others."
Some aviation experts suggest that while the Su-57 is indeed a highly maneuverable aircraft, making it ideal for air shows, its stealth capabilities have been repeatedly questioned. According to The National Interest, the Su-57 would likely be shot down long before it could execute those intricate maneuvers.
Only three countries currently produce fifth-generation stealth fighters: China, the United States, and Russia.
Recently, Janes reported that Algeria has become Russia’s first export customer for the Su-57 stealth fighter jet. Meanwhile, Russia has formally pitched the idea of local production of the Su-57 to India, though India has yet to make a decision.
According to an analysis by the Jamestown Foundation, Russia’s arms exports dropped by 92% from 2021 to 2024 due to redirected resources for the war in Ukraine, sanctions, inflation, and funding issues. The number of countries purchasing Russian arms has declined dramatically, with major customers such as India showing caution or shifting to competitors.
In 2022, Russia exported major arms to 14 states, in 2023, this decreased to 12. Among the countries that remain on Moscow's list of "traditional" clients, are India, China, and Myanmar, which are considered important for the Kremlin.
It is expected, that Russian arms exports will continue to remain low for some time to come.
Russia begins producing turbofan-powered Geran-3 (Shahed-238) drones and modifies Shahed-136 drones
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has begun local production of Iranian Shahed-238 kamikaze drones, rebranded as Geran-3.
Ukrainian sources suggest that these drones are equipped with a twin-spool turbofan engine, giving them a range of up to 2,500 km and a top speed of 600 km/h. This makes them extremely difficult to intercept for Ukraine’s mobile air defense teams, which primarily rely on anti-aircraft machine guns and autocannons.
A notable aspect of the Shahed-238’s construction is its use of Western components, despite international sanctions. Analysis of downed drones has revealed parts such as the Czech-made PBS TJ150 turbojet engine, electronic chips from Intel and Texas Instruments, and satellite navigation components from Tallysman Wireless. The Russian analog uses Tolou-10/13 jet engines (Tolou-10 is an Iranian copy of the Czech PBS TJ100).
The addition of these advanced drones to Russian forces poses a significant threat to both Ukraine’s military and civilian population. However, they can be countered with air defense systems such as the Grawehawk, recently supplied to Ukraine by the United Kingdom.
Also, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, since the beginning of 2025, several significant changes have been observed in the design of the Shahed-136 (“Geran-2,” “Harpy”):
● A new warhead weighing 90 kg;
● The flight controller, power distribution unit, and battery have been relocated from the nose to the tail section;
● Additional ballast has been incorporated into the UAV's structure.
Russia is increasingly using Chinese-made products as an alternative to components from the U.S., the EU, and other countries.
Center for Strategic & International Studies named Shahed the most cost-effective munition in Russia’s firepower strike arsenal. Even though Shahed’s only hit their target less than 10 percent of the time, their low cost means Russia can fire mass salvos almost daily, wearing down Ukrainian air defenses and terrorizing the population. The data compiled by the research team demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of long-range, one-way attack drones. Despite seeing large numbers of these systems shot down by Ukrainian air defenders, they remain the cheapest way to generate effects in Moscow’s firepower strike arsenal. Precision bombardment with Shahed-type drones costs Russia roughly $350,000 per target struck. That is compared to around $1 million per target struck for their most cost-effective missile, which the data suggest could be the Kh-22 air-to-ground cruise missile.
Russia is using Belarusian components for Kh-69 missiles
According to Ukraine, Russia is using Belarusian components in the production of Kh-69 subsonic missiles, confirming Belarus' role in supplying military materials to Russia. These missiles are already being used in offensive operations against Ukrainian targets.
The War & Sanctions portal, managed by the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, reported that as of Feb. 18, 2025, 58 foreign components had been discovered in Russian Kh-69 missiles. Most of these are electronics from companies headquartered in the United States, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. Among the producers of these components, the portal mentioned companies such as Analog Devices (USA), NEC (Nippon Electric Company) (Japan), AXICOM (Switzerland), and Infineon Technologies (Germany).
The Kh-69 missile was developed by MKB Raduga and was first officially introduced at the Russian "Army" forum in August 2022. According to open sources, the missile weighs up to 800 kg, with 310 kg allocated for the warhead, and has a range of up to 400 km. In May 2024, Ukraine's Defense Intelligence reported that Russia produces between one and three Kh-69 missiles per month.
This missile can be launched from the external winglets of Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35S aircraft, as well as from the internal compartment of the latest Su-57 due to its square cross-section.
Experts have compared the Russian Kh-69 to the Storm Shadow and its French equivalent, SCALP, in terms of hypothetical capabilities. However, these Western missiles have a longer range and are also larger in size: in terms of length and payload, the Kh-69 is about two-thirds the size of the Storm Shadow/SCALP.
The Kh-69 missile was reportedly used against Ukraine as early as February 2024 and became widely known for being used in the strike on the Trypilska thermal power plant (TPP) near Kyiv in April 2024.
In October 2024, the Russian military began using a new version of the Kh-69 missile, which received a cluster warhead.
In December 2024, Mikhail Shatsky, an engineer behind the Russian Kh-69 cruise missile, was killed in the Moscow region as part of a Ukrainian intelligence operation.
Other news:
Reportedly, Iran is rearming its missile program and a ship of supplies just arrived from China. CNN reported that the first of two vessels carrying 1,000 tons of a Chinese-made chemical that could be a key component in fuel for Iran’s military missile program has anchored outside the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. It could be a signal that Iran’s missile production is back to business as usual.
India has manufactured a batch of Igla-S man-portable air defense systems under a Russian license. As part of the technology transfer agreement with the Russian company Rosoboronexport, the Indian company Adani Defense Systems and Technologies Limited (ADSTL) will produce and supply 48 Igla-S launchers and 100 missiles to the army at the first stage.
North Korea is participating in Russia's war against Ukraine to gain combat experience and modernize its military technology - Ukraine’s Intelligence Chief Budanov. Russia has succeeded in improving the accuracy of the KN-23 missiles supplied by North Korea. South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) stated in November 2024 that North Korean forces had been training alongside Russian naval infantry and airborne (VDV) units - traditionally more elite forces in the Russian military.
Western intelligence officials report that Russia's spy agencies have established a secretive new unit responsible for carrying out covert attacks across Europe and beyond. Previously undisclosed operations linked to this group include assassination attempts, acts of sabotage, and a scheme to place incendiary devices on aircraft.
Russia and the United States discussed possible cooperation on energy projects in the Arctic at a meeting in Saudi Arabia - Politico reported. Check out the previous edition of this newsletter about Russia’s growing presence in the Arctic region.
The Kremlin's militarisation of Russia has gone deep indeed.
https://jamestown.substack.com/p/kremlins-militarization-of-russias