Russia's Arms Trends: around-the-clock missile production and North Korean support
Key developments of May, 2025
With or without a peace agreement with Ukraine, Russia is preparing for a broader confrontation. According to the Dutch intelligence, Russia will be ready for a new war a year after the end of hostilities in Ukraine. The country has increased military spending to more than 6% of GDP this year, from 3.6% before the war, and is producing much more artillery than it needs for the war with Ukraine.
While many remain sceptical about the potential for the armed conflict between Russia and the collective West, or separate countries of the Western bloc, I remember many articles with similar titles like “Five reasons why Putin might not invade” published just days before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Let’s stay informed and prepared!
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Military Cooperations and Alliances
According to the report released by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, established to monitor the implementation of UN sanctions on North Korea, the rapid expansion of cooperation between North Korea and Russia contributed to Moscow’s ability to increase its missile attacks against Ukrainian cities, including targeted strikes against critical civilian infrastructure. It also provided the resources to allow North Korea to fund its military programs and further develop its ballistic missiles programs, which are themselves prohibited under multiple UNSCRs, and gain first-hand experience in modern warfare, in return for its military support to Russia against Ukraine in which over 11,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia since October 2024.
In 2024, Russia received up to 9 million artillery shells and munitions from North Korea, including 122 mm and 152 mm calibers.
While Russia faces a labor shortage of 1.5 million workers, which could rise to 2.4 million by 2030, North Korea is apparently ready to help. Reportedly, the country sent 15,000 workers to Russia to help alleviate a labor shortage driven by Moscow’s military losses in Ukraine and falling birth rates.
“In exchange for military support, Russia is compensating North Korea with missile and space technologies. It is also possible that this includes technologies related to nuclear weapons or their advancement,” the head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service said.
The Telegraph reported that the Kremlin sent North Korea an advanced air defence system in exchange for thousands of troops that battled Ukrainian forces inside Russia.
Additional developments:
Zelensky said that China has stopped selling Mavic drones to Kyiv and other European nations while continuing shipments to Russia. According to European officials, China also appears to have restricted exports of certain components, such as magnets used in drone motors, to Western buyers, while simultaneously increasing such shipments to Russia. Read more about Russia-China cooperation here.
Ukraine confirmed Chinese supplies to 20 Russian military plants, the intelligence chief said. China supplies tooling machines, special chemical products, gunpowder, and components specifically to Russia’s defence manufacturing industries.
In the near future, Iran plans to supply Russia with launchers for its short-range ballistic missiles, specifically the Fath-360 system. With a 75-mile (120-km) range, the Fath-360 would give Moscow's forces a new weapon to fire at Ukrainian frontline troops, nearby military targets, and population centers close to the border with Russia, analysts say.
Russia has relied heavily on Iranian-designed drones to execute its war against Ukraine. Russia and Iran have coordinated a multi-billion-dollar project to produce Iranian-designed drones inside Russia for use in the war in Ukraine, according to a report published by C4ADS. Iranian company Sahara Thunder collaborated with the Russian firm Alabuga JSC to transfer the technology and expertise needed to produce a variant of the S-136 drone. The companies used a UAE-based intermediary to conduct parts of their partnership.
A significant number of Russian heavy weapons appeared for the first time in the arsenal of the Libyan National Army (LNA), which controls a portion of the country. Among the most notable items were 300 mm BM-30 Smerch multiple launch rocket systems and Tor short-range air defense systems, both seen for the first time in Libya.
Niger’s military regime has abruptly ended its intelligence cooperation with its key allies, Russia and Turkey. The primary reason for the decision was the low effectiveness of both the equipment and the personnel provided by Russian and Turkish partners.
Russia’s Africa Corps, also known as the Russian Expeditionary Corps (REK), released an image of a BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle operating in an undisclosed location in Africa, likely in Mali. According to regional analysts, the deployment of armored fighting vehicles such as the BMP-3 highlights a continued shift toward more formalized state-backed military support in Africa under the Russian flag.
Defense Production and Innovations
Several reports released last month claimed that Russia has increased its production of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as improved their quality.
The Economist, while arguing that Russia is unlikely to initiate an invasion or armed conflict with NATO, reported that Russia is producing weapons at a remarkable pace, estimating over 1,400 Iskander ballistic missiles and around 500 Kh-101 cruise missiles being made each year.
The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency recently released an interesting infographic with its estimates of Russia’s current capabilities and projections for future production. For all existing types of hypersonic weapons, Russia’s current arsenal is estimated at approximately 200–300 units, including the Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal," the "Tsirkon," and the "Avangard" warheads. By 2035, this number is projected to grow to 1,000 missiles.
As for cruise missiles, Russia is currently estimated to possess between 300 and 600 units, with a projected increase to 5,000 by 2035. For intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the current number is around 350, with a slight projected rise to 400 by 2035.
According to a recent investigation, Russia has significantly increased production of Kh-101 cruise missiles. Their production has risen from 56 units annually to approximately 50 per month. This is supported by round-the-clock operations in three shifts. At least 633 Kh-101 missiles are expected to be manufactured — 400 under a primary state contract and 233 under supplemental agreements.
Also, Russia is undertaking a major factory expansion to ramp up production of a RDX, a powerful explosive used in artillery shells and other munitions. It is not currently produced at Sverdlov Plant’s factory, the Biysk Oleum Plant (BOZ). The plant is located about 3,000 km (1,860 miles) east of Moscow, which puts it out of range of most Ukrainian attack drones. The new facility is expected to produce 6,000 metric tons of high explosive annually. This would be enough to fill the warheads of 1.28 million of Russia's OF-29 artillery shells, a common long-range projectile that measures 152 mm in diameter.
For its other report, The Economist used commercial mobile-phone tracking data to measure human activity at major defense-industrial sites across Russia. These indicators (device presence, traffic patterns, fitness app usage) reveal massive increases in night shifts, construction, and workforce relocation near key arms plants. Russia has also invested in support infrastructure such as housing, commuter corridors, and dormitories, especially near NATO borders (e.g. Luga).
The Ukrainian authorities claimed that Russians recently upgraded their Iskander-M ballistic missiles. The modified missiles are now equipped with radar-decoy systems and use quasi-ballistic flight paths that make them more difficult to track and intercept using Patriot systems. Read more in my recent newsletter.
Additional news:
Russia has invested heavily in the repair of Tu-95MS strategic bombers, indicating plans to use these Soviet-era aircraft for many years. In March 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defence approved and funded the overhaul of six Tu-95MS strategic bombers.
Sanctions and Sanctions Evasion
Russia's defense industry has adapted to a new normal. Despite international sanctions, factories across the country have been able to keep building bullets and shells, drones and military vehicles. "Things don't have to be great; not everything needs to be functioning or running. You just need to have them accessible for the armed forces at the right moment and in the right place," reports Kyiv Independent. This system of military supplies, however, is still reliant on outside help. Higher-tech components such as microchips and semiconductors are more difficult to acquire, and this is where Russia's third-country connections prove vital.
The number of foreign parts used for the production of Kh-101 cruise missiles has decreased significantly in recent years. For instance, an altimeter is a key part of a missile's guidance system, enabling cruise missiles to determine their position in space, adjust altitude, and maneuver around terrain or avoid air defense systems. Without this sophisticated component, Russia’s cruise missiles wouldn’t be able to function effectively in combat. Internal documents from Russia’s TRV-Engineering suggest that the country and its allies have largely localized the production of these systems. The only component not confirmed to be domestically produced is a chip made by Integral OJSC, a manufacturer based in Minsk.
Russia and the West
Russia is expanding its bases along the border with Finland. Military experts inside Russia, though, characterize the activity along the Finnish border as part of the Kremlin’s preparation for potential conflict with NATO: “When the troops are back [from Ukraine], they will be looking over the border at a country they consider an adversary”.
Data analysed by the BBC show that Ukraine's Western allies have paid Russia more for its hydrocarbons than they have given Ukraine in aid. By 29 May, Russia had made more than €883bn ($973bn; £740bn) in revenue from fossil fuel exports since the start of the full-scale invasion, including €228bn from the sanctioning countries. The lion's share of that amount, €209bn, came from EU member states.
Warfare tactics
Eight Il-76 transport aircraft arrived at the Engels-2 airbase in just four days - Ukrainian sources reported on May 29. These transport planes deliver Kh-101/555 cruise missiles. This possibly indicates that the Russian military is preparing for a massive missile strike on Ukraine in the near future.
Russia appears to be preparing to incorporate motorcycles more systematically into its offensive operations in Ukraine during the summer and fall of 2025, likely as a way to counter Ukraine’s effective use of drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage showing what are likely members of the 299th Airborne Regiment (part of the 98th Airborne Division) conducting both offensive and defensive maneuvers on motorcycles in small groups of two to three at a training facility in Russia. Motorcycles allow Russian soldiers to enhance their speed and maneuverability, which is crucial for evading Ukrainian drone strikes, but the loud noise of the motorcycle prevents the rider from hearing approaching Ukrainian drones.
Russia deployed decoy S-300/S-400 systems in the Far East in place of actual air defense systems. This was identified by a Japanese OSINT analyst through satellite imagery analysis. Two such decoys were spotted at the site of the 1533rd Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment near Vladivostok. It appears that Russia is attempting to maintain the illusion of sustained air defense capabilities in the Far East. At the same time, this tactic may help conceal the transfer of real air defense systems closer to the Russia–Ukraine front line.
Russian Drones
Russia seeks to produce up to 500 drones per day, Zelensky said. He expressed doubt that Russia could launch 1,000 drones in a single attack, but acknowledged it could become possible in the future if Russia amasses enough drones over time.
Despite bold claims, Russia is currently incapable of launching a thousand Shahed-type attack drones at Ukraine every day, said Editor-in-Chief of Ukrainian publication Defense Express. Reaching such a scale would require significant time and effort to ramp up production.
To reduce Russia’s ability to produce Shaheds, it is essential to target component suppliers, strike final assembly facilities, and enforce sanctions more effectively.A Ukrainian officer told The Economist that Russian drones are operating at altitudes between 2,000 and 2,500 meters—beyond the reach of the small-caliber weapons and shoulder-launched missiles typically used by Ukraine's mobile air defense teams. On May 25, Russian forces had recently achieved a new altitude record for Shahed drones, reaching 4,900 meters. It was also reported that Russia is ramping up production of both Shahed and decoy drones and is increasingly deploying them at higher altitudes.
On May 29, Russians attacked with a new type of strike jet-powered UAV called “DAN-M.” These UAVs were launched in a group from Crimea. The “DAN-M” is originally a jet-powered target drone used for air defense training and testing, which Russia has converted into a strike UAV. It's unclear why Russia made this modification — perhaps simply because they have a large stockpile of these drones. Flight time: 25–40 minutes
Speed: 400–750 km/h
Flight altitude: up to 9 kilometersRussian engineers are working to integrate FPV drones into a prototype naval reconnaissance and strike platform known as Katran. The effort involves adapting the serially produced 10-inch Skvorec FPV drone for operations from a naval drone carrier. The Katran unmanned boat, currently undergoing trials with Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, will serve as the launch platform. Developers claim it can carry and deploy dozens of FPV drones at ranges of 100–200 km. After launch, the vessel would act as a control signal relay.
Other News
Russia is introducing new nuclear-tipped air-to-air missiles as part of an overall expansion of its nuclear forces, according to an assessment from the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, or DIA. Russia probably maintains a nuclear stockpile of about 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and up to 2,000 non-strategic warheads.
Since the beginning of 2025, the Ukraine’s Defense Forces have hit more than one thousand Russian tanks (1,159) and more than two and a half thousand war-armored vehicles (2,510), Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi said. Ukraine's General Staff on May 18 reported that Russia lost 10,832 tanks and 22,645 other armored vehicles since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Independent open-source intelligence platform ORYX visually verified the destruction of 3947 Russian tanks and 7987 other armored vehicles.
Satellite images show a complete depletion of armored vehicle stocks at the Omsk Tank-Automotive Engineering Institute’s storage facility. A relatively small amount of equipment was stored at this base. This is the only higher education institution in Russia that trains engineers specializing in the repair, maintenance, and modernization of motor vehicles and armored vehicles. The fact that equipment is being removed from educational institutions’ warehouses highlights the Russian army’s problems with depleting its equipment reserves.
