Russia's Arms Trends: drone diplomacy, artillery production, and China's role
Key developments of April, 2025
In its war against Ukraine, Russia continues to rely heavily on its artillery dominance—a traditional cornerstone of both its physical and psychological warfare. Ukrainian forces have made countering this a top priority, destroying 49 Russian artillery systems on April 19 alone. To reinforce its capabilities, Russia has turned to allies in the Far East, including North Korea, which has reportedly supplied M1991 multiple launch rocket systems, as well as at least 4 million artillery shells.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, North Korean missiles have significantly improved and were used in recent attacks on civilian populations.
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Military Cooperations and Alliances
China remains the main enabler of the Russian war effort in Ukraine. On April 17, Zelensky stated, referring to Ukraine’s intelligence sources, that China is supplying weapons to Russia, including gunpowder, artillery. China dismissed this claim. More recently, Kyiv presented Beijing with evidence that “Chinese representatives are engaged in the production of some weapons on the territory of Russia”.
Earlier this month, two Chinese nationals were captured by Ukraine’s armed forces in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. According to Western intelligence, more than one hundred Chinese citizens are fighting for the Russian military against Ukraine as mercenaries, with no apparent direct ties to the Chinese government.
It was reported that China has been actively adopting modern warfare practices currently used in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the Chinese military has begun introducing fiber-optic FPV drones and drones equipped with machine vision systems for automatic targeting.
The other close ally of Russia, North Korea, has been supplying artillery shells, missiles, and even soldiers in exchange for oil products and advanced rocket technology. Experts note that the North Korean defense industry operates as a branch of the Russian one. Reportedly, the majority of artillery shells used by Russian forces in Ukraine in 2024 were manufactured in North Korea. In some Russian military units, between 75% and 100% of artillery shells are North Korean-made.
Over the past 20 months, North Korea has supplied Russia with at least 4 million artillery shells, according to a Reuters investigation. The shells are systematically shipped by sea and rail, significantly boosting Russia’s firepower on the front lines.
The quality of North Korean weaponry has also been improving. It turns out that KN-23 missiles are now capable of maneuvering and evading Ukraine's air defense interceptors during the terminal phase of flight — something they were not able to do before. You can read the report on the improved quality of North Korean missiles in my recent newsletter: Ukraine sees marked improvement in accuracy of Russia's North Korean missiles.
Recently, North Korean artillery systems, specifically the powerful 170mm “Koksan” guns, have been spotted in Russian-occupied Crimea. The Koksan’s extended range – up to 60 kilometers with rocket-assisted projectiles – makes them particularly dangerous, as only Ukraine’s HIMARS and GLSDB systems have the capacity to strike back. Additionally, in April, Russian forces started using North Korean M-1991 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in combat operations against Ukraine.
Reportedly, the ballistic missile that struck a residential building in Kyiv on April 24 and killed at least 12 people was made in North Korea. It contained at least 116 components sourced from multiple countries — most of them made by U.S. companies.
Additional developments:
Russia committed to helping military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger acquire arms and training for a planned 5,000-strong force to deploy in the central Sahel region. (I’ve reported on the Russian post-Wagner involvement in Africa in one of my previous newsletters: read here).
Syrian authorities requested that Russia extradite ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad, but were turned down. Speaking to the NYT, Syrian President al-Sharaa alluded to the possibility of continued military cooperation with Moscow, stressing Syria's long-standing reliance on Russian arms.
On April 14, 2025, it was reported by Janes, that Russia had formally requested permission from Indonesia to station long-range military aircraft at Manuhua Air Force Base in Biak Numfor, Papua, a mere 1,200 kilometers from Darwin, Australia. Indonesia dismissed the report of a Russian request to base aircraft in Papua. Moscow has defended its military ties with Jakarta but did not deny claims that it sought access to an air base in Indonesia.
Don’t Let Russia Build a Naval Base in Sudan (Mohamed Suliman for Kyiv Post). Recently, Russia almost secured an agreement to build a naval base on the Red Sea east of Sudan. The West should prevent this step as it will pose a serious threat to the regional interests and the stability of world trade in the Red Sea area. The implications of building the Russian naval base will be severe; this unique location on the Red Sea will provide Putin with a strong foothold to project power and threaten global trade that traverses an area crucial for 30 percent of the world’s shipping containers. Conceivably, this could become an ideal pressure card that Russia could use ruthlessly against European nations. Russia could also utilize what would be its first African naval base to transfer mercenaries and smuggle gold from the continent to finance its unjust war against Ukraine.
On April 4, the Russian-Indian naval exercises, INDRA, successfully concluded in the Bay of Bengal. Over the course of three days, the sailors from both countries practiced tactical maneuvering in joint groups and improved practical skills in combating unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned boats of a hypothetical adversary.
India is accelerating its push to boost defence exports, aiming to fill the gap left by countries traditionally dependent on Russian weaponry. New Delhi plans to expand the availability of cheap loans for arms purchases—even for nations with higher political or credit risks.
Rosoboronexport has announced a plan to establish a new maintenance and repair center for Russian Mi military helicopters in Peru. Rosoboronexport’s service center framework will be presented to the Peruvian government alongside the introduction of other Russian-made equipment to further expand the firm’s reach in the Latin American region.
Military Production and Innovations
A central element of Russia’s strategy in Ukraine has been its reliance on massive and sustained artillery bombardments. In contrast, Western militaries have in recent years shifted focus away from traditional artillery, favoring the precision and sophistication of smart munitions. For Russian commanders, however, artillery remains a psychological and physical weapon—used to devastate enemy positions and break the will of those defending them - writes Michael Peck for The Business Insider.
Russia’s defense industry ramped up production of its latest wheeled self-propelled howitzers (either Malva or Giatsint-K), reported Militarnyi. A photo showing a train convoy of these systems was published in February. At least 8 guns were recorded as being transported on the platforms. The Defense Express poses a question: What kind of military doctrine does Russia have in mind for using these wheeled self-propelled guns in its operations? Wheeled artillery has not been a traditional component of the Russian arsenal, meaning there is no established strategic or tactical framework for its use.
Additional developments:
Putin: Russia's armed forces are still short of certain weapons, including drones, despite a big increase in production. Russia’s production of weapons, communications, reconnaissance and electronic warfare systems more than doubled. The troops received over 4,000 units of armoured weapons, 180 combat aircraft and helicopters. More than 1.5 million drones of various types had also been produced, Putin added, including about 4,000 first-person view (FPV) drones.
Putin unveiled a sweeping development strategy for the Russian Navy, outlining plans for a significant expansion and modernization through 2050. The strategy emphasizes the integration of advanced technologies, including hypersonic weaponry and unmanned systems, while committing RUB 8.4 trillion ($100.8 billion) over the next decade for the construction of new warships.
Over the past five years, 49 ships of various classes have been built, and from 2020 to 2024, to this date, four Project Borei-A strategic submarines and four Project Yasen-M multipurpose submarines have been commissioned - Putin said.
Russia launched the fifth Project 885M Yasen-M nuclear-powered submarine, Perm. Perm would be the first Yasen-class submarine to serve as a dedicated carrier of 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile.
Russia's modernized ballistic missiles are now harder to intercept, according to Ukraine’s authorities. The Russians have increased the proportion of ballistic missile use since the beginning of 2024.
The Ukrainian military publication Defense Express revealed satellite images showing progress on Russia's new flagship, "Ivan Rogov," under construction in occupied Kerch, Crimea. This vessel will surpass the sunken cruiser "Moskva" in size and capacity, accommodating up to 900 troops, 75 vehicles, 3 landing craft, and 15 helicopters. Sea trials are expected in 2027.
Moscow is testing its Nudol anti-satellite missile, which has already been launched to blast a Soviet-era spacecraft in low Earth orbit, and could in theory likewise smash into any of SpaceX’s 7000 satellites.
Sanctions and Sanctions Evasion
In 2024, Russian defense companies imported over $10 million worth of metalworking tools from Israel, including drills, milling cutters, and precision equipment like grinding and grooving tools, often routed through third countries, according to The Insider's analysis of Russian customs data. The largest supplier of these products is ISCAR, an Israeli manufacturer that is part of the multinational corporation IMC (International Metalworking Companies), headquartered in the United States. ISCAR products—primarily cutting tools and other metalworking instruments—were imported into Russia in the amount of over $4 million. Another leading Israeli brand is Vargus. In 2024, products from this company worth approximately $3 million were imported into Russia. Vargus is part of the German industrial group NEUMO Ehrenberg Group.
I’ve reported on an investigation by Kyiv Independent, “How Russia profits from arms exports to Saudi Arabia despite sanctions,” here.
Additional news:
The German company EKC is the largest supplier of chromite to Russia, which is used in military equipment. From January 2023 to April 2024, it exported chromite worth €24.2 million, covering half of Russia’s imports.
EKC.AG is a well-known German company headquartered in Bavaria, led by Vladimir Platunov, a Russian citizen who has lived in Germany since the 1990s.
Russia and the West
Russia said it will view any Ukrainian strike using German Taurus missiles as "direct participation" by Berlin in the war. The warning came after Friedrich Merz, Germany’s incoming chancellor, expressed his willingness to send the long-range system to Kyiv.
Denmark is planning to send some of its soldiers to Ukraine so they can learn from Ukraine's experience in drone warfare. Russia's ambassador to Denmark said that the move was a provocation.
He said that facilities "including headquarters, training and education centers, as well as locations of military personnel and military equipment, both deep inside Ukrainian territory and on the front line, are a legitimate target."
Warfare tactics:
Russia used a double-tap strike tactic and cluster munitions in its attack on Ukraine’s Sumy city - the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission of Ukraine reported. On April 13, two ballistic missiles launched from the Voronezh and Kursk regions of Russia struck the center of Sumy, killing over 30 civilians and injuring dozens more. According to preliminary reports, the attack was carried out using Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles.
The first missile, equipped with a high-explosive fragmentation warhead, deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure. Shortly after, as rescue workers and medical teams began assisting the victims, a second missile was launched — this time carrying a cluster warhead.
Russia used cluster munitions in its strike on Kharkiv on April 18.
Russia is intensifying its focus on Shahed OWA-UAV operations by launching ever-increasing numbers, expanding production capabilities and refining tactics, Matthew Bint and Fabian Hinz write in their analysis for IISS. Despite a steady flow of Shahed 136s from Iran, Moscow is heavily investing in its own production facilities, and the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) has long been assessed to be a production facility for Russian-manufactured systems. Also, Russia has established a second production line for Shahed 136 copies in the city of Izhevsk.
On April 23, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a long-range strike on a drone manufacturing plant situated within the Alabuga Special Economic Zone more than 1,000 km from the Ukrainian border. The attacked facility has the capacity to produce up to 300 combat drones per day.
Russian Drones
From the Steppes of Donbas to the Deserts of Syria. The increasing use of first-person view drones in wars and conflicts involving Russia. This report, based on the OSINT investigation, explains how Russia is leveraging the military experience it is gaining in its war on Ukraine as a means to further its influence abroad. Beginning in late 2023, Russian instructors started training Syrian soldiers in the use of first-person view (FPV) drones. Three Syrian Arab Army units underwent training in FPV drones usage: the 5th and 7th mechanized divisions, and the 25th Special Mission Forces Division, the renamed “Tiger Forces”, formerly under the command of the notorious Suheil al-Hasan. Al-Hasan is currently the head of the Syrian special forces. Pro-Assad forces were actively developing the drones, such as by installing larger batteries and thus improving range. According to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, pro-Assad forces were regularly targeting civilians with FPV drones. Dozens of civilians were targeted, maimed, and killed by these devices, particularly at the start of 2024. At the same time, a large part of the success of the rebel offensive was due to their own astute use of FPV drones - likely involving Ukrainian trainers and even operators. Another armed Syrian faction, the Kurdish-dominated SDF, has also recently been using FPV drones in its fight against Turkish-backed militias.
Russians are expanding the use of interceptor drones to combat Ukrainian reconnaissance and strike drones. The videos show Russians deploying anti-aircraft FPV drones equipped with both day and night optics. There are two types of intercepts: one where the signal is lost before impact, and another involving a direct collision.
Russians have begun testing a "friend-or-foe" system for drones. The automatic drone recognition system will operate within a radius of 100 km and at an altitude of 5 km.
Russia announced the start of testing its own satellite communication system for medium-class unmanned aerial vehicles. Reportedly, the system operates in the Ku-band frequencies, with the possibility of producing a version for the C-band. The developers promise that the system will ensure stable operation at the edges of coverage zones of space vehicles in geostationary orbit and prospective high elliptical orbit, including in high latitudes.
Other News
Putin ordered another 160,000 Russian citizens to be called up to serve in the military. The new order, starting April 1 and to be completed by July 15.
This marks the largest conscription campaign in 14 years.
According to Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, Russia can mobilize 5 million troops who have undergone military service and training, while its overall mobilization capacity is as many as 20 million.
Disturbing, to know. The good is in that, is our strength and resolve. Thank you....
As soon as I read ‘Russian attacks on civilian populations’ in Ukraine (2nd paragraph), I stopped reading. Garbage. 13,000 dead civilians (mostly ethnic Russian speakers in the East, where most of the combat takes place) in 3 years + of high intensity war. That has to be the lowest civilian death to military death ratio since WW1. In Kiev, the cafes, bars, restaurants, parks, and other public areas are jammed full of draft dodging kids, and their graft sucking elite parents - easy targets if Russia wanted to kill civilians. Honestly, I don’t know what you sort of people are trying to achieve with your ridiculous transparent propaganda narratives at this late stage of the war. What is left of Ukraine needs to make peace NOW on the best terms it can get, before it shrinks to the river, loses another 300,000 KIAs, and 3million emigrants. Stop drinking the kool-aid, wake up, and listen to Arestovich - lose 4 now, or 9 later.