Arms Trends in Ukraine: 19 May - 25 May, 2025

Arms exports, defense tech investments, and the urgent need for Patriot systems

Photo: Dutch service members trained hundreds of Ukrainian recruits. Courtesy of the Dutch Ministry of Defence.

Russia is raining hellfire on Ukraine, launching its improved ballistic missiles and pushing Ukrainian air defenses to the saturation point. Yet none of this seems to convince the Trump administration, which continues to ignore Ukraine’s request to purchase additional Patriot batteries.

In addition to the most urgent war developments, I’m also tracking several other trends, such as the potential for investment cooperation with Ukrainian defense manufacturers. There are hundreds of defense tech companies in Ukraine, but only a handful are truly investment-ready. I highlight key points from an opinion column by expert Ihor Fedirko, who argues that being battle-proven doesn’t automatically translate into being investor-ready. A range of internal challenges and external conditions affect whether these businesses can successfully engage with global stakeholders.

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Military Transfers to Ukraine

Last week, Ukraine’s authorities stated that Russia has upgraded its Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which it uses to strike targets on Ukrainian territory. The modified missiles are now equipped with radar-decoy systems and use quasi-ballistic flight paths that make them more difficult to track and intercept using Patriot systems.

So far, Ukraine’s requests to directly purchase more Patriot systems and missiles from the US have gone unanswered. Secretary of State Rubio said the United States does not have Patriots requested by Ukraine. However, it is working closely with NATO allies that possess a certain number of Patriot systems to encourage them to transfer them to Ukraine. Currently, American Patriot and French-Italian SAMP/T air defense batteries remain the only options for Ukraine to defend itself against Russia’s ballistic missile attacks.

Bloomberg reported that in the case of Trump refusing to send more weapons to Ukraine, European countries are preparing to purchase more American systems and then send those on to Ukraine. Experts warn that the arms supplies to Ukraine, authorized and financed under former President Biden, may run out by this summer, and that Europe is unlikely to ramp up production fast enough to make up the shortfall.

Read more about Patriots in my previous newsletter.

Additional developments:

• The United States authorized the transfer of decommissioned Abrams tanks from Australia to Ukraine. According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), the first shipment — comprising 49 tanks — was recently prepared for sea transport.

• Belgium said that it will try to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine earlier than initially planned. Back in early March, its Prime Minister announced that the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine had been postponed until 2026. The delay is tied to Belgium’s expectation of receiving new F-35 fighter jets, which will replace the country’s existing F-16 fleet.

• The EU delivered two-thirds of the two million artillery shells promised to Ukraine, Ukraine’s FM said. On 4 May, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine could receive 1.8 million artillery shells this year through the Czech-led ammunition procurement initiative and plans to receive 3 million shells overall from its partners.

• Finland will supply artillery ammunition to Ukraine using funds from frozen Russian assets. The deliveries will take place under a European Union initiative, with a total value of €90 million. The ammunition will be procured from Finnish manufacturers, strengthening the country’s domestic defense industry.

• France, under a grant agreement, will deliver to Ukraine six modern ROCUS unmanned mine clearance systems worth nearly 15 million euros. These systems are developed by the Estonian Milrem Robotics together with the French company CNIM Systèmes Industriels.

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Investments in Ukraine’s Defense Tech

Last week, Ukrainska Pravda published an op-ed by Ihor Fedirko, CEO at Ukrainian Council of Defence Industry (UCDI), titled "Why Ukrainian Arms Manufacturers Need the Next Level of Investment Maturity." I summarized this article along with the findings from the analytical brief “The Role of Private Funds in the Development of the Defense Industry” by Defence Industry Data (D.I.D.), prepared in April 2025 for the Ukrainian Defense Industry Association.