Arms Trends in Ukraine: 17 Mar. - 23 Mar. 2025
The latest developments in Ukraine's defence production, arms transfers, and on the battlefield.
Last week, Ukraine-US-Russia talks on a possible ceasefire continued, as well as ongoing Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Major Ukrainian cities came under attack, with Ukrainian air defenses destroying hundreds of targets each night. Ukraine remains in critical need of additional air-defense systems, particularly American Patriots, beyond the estimated six it already has.
While withdrawing from the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces launched an offensive in the Belgorod region, achieving limited gains.
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Major Developments on the Battlefield and Beyond
The Kremlin on March 18 announced it had agreed to a U.S.-proposed partial ceasefire against certain targets in Ukraine, claiming Russian President Vladimir Putin had "responded favorably to the proposal and immediately" ordered his armed forces to halt attacks. Despite the announcement, Russian missile and drone attacks against Ukraine have continued.
Russia launched several attacks on major Ukrainian cities, including Kropyvnytskyi in Kirovohrad Oblast, as well as Odesa overnight on March 20, Zaporizhzhia on March 21, and Kyiv on March 23. The Russians launched 147 UAVs to attack Ukraine on the night of 22-23 March, 97 of which were downed by Ukraine's air defence. On the previous two days, 100 and 114 drones were downed.
Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have not yet concluded the details of the moratorium against energy infrastructure strikes.
On March 23, negotiations between Ukraine and the United States on a ceasefire continued in Saudi Arabia. Reportedly, these talks focused on a potential Black Sea maritime ceasefire. The discussion was “productive and focused,” and “addressed key points including energy,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov said on social media.
On March 24, expert groups from Russia and the United States will hold consultations. Ukraine won't interact with Russia during talks in Saudi Arabia on March 24 - authorities said.
Additional developments:
On March 19, Zelenskyy confirmed that a military operation is underway in the Russian Belgorod region as part of efforts to counter Russian forces. The operation commenced on the morning of March 18. Whether the Belgorod incursion is intended as a brief raid or a longer-term operation is unclear. Ukrainian forces continue limited attacks in Belgorod Oblast.
Ukrainian drones attacked the Engels airbase in Russia's Saratov region on the night of March 20. The airbase is known for being the launch point of Russian strategic aviation aircraft that carried out large-scale missile strikes on Ukraine. The warehouses had containers for Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles, which Russia uses to attack Ukraine from Tu-160 and Tu-95 aircraft. There is also a possibility that a missile pre-flight preparation center was located there and was also destroyed.
The U.S. "is signing a deal very shortly with respect to rare earths with Ukraine," Trump said after signing an order to ramp up domestic minerals production. Several European leaders, particularly those from Poland and the Czech Republic, are trying to persuade President Zelensky to agree with the United States on the minerals deal. The Czech President stated that this agreement could be seen as a form of security guarantee for Ukraine. He argued that with American businesses operating in Ukraine, "you can expect that these interests will be protected."
Military Transfers and Cooperation Between Ukraine and Its Partners
On March 19, Trump and Zelensky spoke for an hour, discussing a possible ceasefire and safeguarding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. During the call, Zelensky requested additional air defense systems, specifically Patriot missile systems, to protect Ukrainian civilians. According to the readout, Trump agreed to look into available options, particularly in Europe.
Most estimates suggest that Zelensky has around six Patriot launchers remaining, which are transported across Ukraine on trucks.
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