Russia's Arms Trends: military exports to Saudi Arabia, sanctions evasion, and new transfers from North Korea
Three main stories of the week: 18 - 24 Jan. 2025
What is a better way to start your weekend than by reading about Russian weapons and warfare tactics? Jokes aside, I’ve decided to take this entire section out of my main newsletter and turn it into an independent weekly product, dedicated to key stories about Russia, its military capabilities, warfare tactics, and cooperation with allies. I’ll complement it with more information and curated research to help you understand Russia’s current military priorities and how its partnerships and alliances are evolving.
This week we focus on the recent investigation by The Kyiv Independent exposing Russia’s military exports to Saudi Arabia (which purchases Western weaponry as well); new military deliveries from North Korea, as well as an overview of the continued imports of Western military goods by Russia.
Investigation: How Russia profits from arms exports to Saudi Arabia despite sanctions — leaked emails (Alisa Yurchenko for The Kyiv Independent).
While numerous investigations have exposed Russia's sanctions circumvention schemes, this report offers a different perspective—Russia’s continued military exports to several countries. These exports not only support Russia’s war machine but also help foster alliances. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which purchase both Russian and Western weapons, risk compromising sensitive Western technologies that could be accessed by Russian experts.
Today, we have a brilliant investigation by a journalist from The Kyiv Independent, who analyzed leaked documents containing thousands of internal emails from Roselectronics, a subsidiary of Russia's state arms giant, Rostec. The documents reveal that Saudi Arabia, along with India, China, Algeria, and other countries, has not canceled previously signed contracts with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. Instead, they continue buying Russian weapons, bolstering its defense production and war effort. Experts suggest that Russia’s motivation for selling weapons abroad extends beyond financial gain to include the prospect of establishing or strengthening geopolitical ties and alliances and helping secure votes at the United Nations.
After analyzing classified Russian documents, the lead investigator concluded that Saudi Arabia had purchased Russian Pantsir air defense systems. Various references to the contract in the leaked emails suggest that Saudi Arabia ordered between six and ten Pantsir batteries, agreeing to pay €2.17 billion for the systems, additional equipment, ammunition, and operator training.
The Pantsir contract brings significant risks, as it could enable Russia to gain familiarity with Western technologies through its cooperation with Saudi Arabia, a major buyer of U.S. weaponry as well as arms from South Korea and EU countries. The risk is particularly high because the contract includes “integration” services, which involve incorporating the Pantsir systems into Saudi Arabia’s command, communications, and intelligence infrastructure.
Russia is waiting for the perfect conditions to deliver a "decisive" missile strike on Ukraine. But several factors prevent that. (An interview with the Ukrainian aviation expert. New Voice. Available in Ukrainian).
In his interview with the New Voice, Valerii Romanenko, an aviation expert and senior researcher at the State Aviation Museum, stated that currently, Russians are waiting for the right conditions to launch a massive missile strike on Ukraine. However, they are struggling with this due to a range of factors, including the increased effectiveness of Ukraine's air defense systems, the extensive use of electronic warfare (EW), and unexpectedly high losses on their side.
Ukraine now has more means of defense: at least eight Patriots integrated into Ukraine’s air defense system. This means Ukraine can protect several key targets against all types of missile attacks. Russians understand this, especially in cases when 90% of ballistic missiles are intercepted, and sometimes even more when it comes to cruise missiles. In the case of attacks on well-defended targets, interception rates can reach up to 100%. Russians realize that trying to hit and disable these targets would be extremely costly for them.
Ideal weather conditions for Russian attacks involve low temperatures, severe frost, and other meteorological factors that would allow them to effectively use cruise missiles. So far, they haven’t had such conditions. It's also important to note that Russia’s best missiles rely on TERCOM and DSMAC systems, which navigate using the landscape over which they fly.
Ukrainian electronic warfare developers have been hugely helpful, creating systems capable of effectively disrupting these missiles. Russians have stopped using Kalibr missiles because they lack onboard navigation systems (this is a direct translation of the expert’s phrase; it may not be technically precise). As a result, Kalibrs have become ineffective and are now almost unused.
Additionally, Russia's aircraft production has been steadily declining every year. In 2023, production dropped by three units compared to 2022, and in 2024, it was expected to decrease by one more unit compared to 2023. What does this tell us? Aircraft production primarily depends on complex radio-electronic components. It seems that such supply channels have been blocked for Russians, leaving them unable to produce these components. The same applies to missile production, which also requires highly advanced technology and systems, as well as a significant amount of radio-electronic components.
The recent publication by The Economist reports on the work of the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise to study downed Russian missiles. Experts at the Institute noted an increase in the use of Russian-made parts in weaponry. At the start of the war, the Kalibr, one of Russia’s most destructive cruise missiles, relied mostly on Western electronic components. Today, most of the Kalibr’s “brains” are made in Russia. There is also a growing presence of Chinese components.
North Korean Reinforcements to Russia (*Based on two reports by Howard Altman and Thomas Newdick for The War Zone)
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Budanov, told TWZ that North Korea is expected to send reinforcements to Russia’s Kursk region, primarily consisting of gun and rocket artillery units and their hardware, as well as short-range ballistic missile capabilities. North Korea has provided about 120 170mm M1989 Koksan self-propelled artillery guns and 120 M-1991 240mm multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to Russia in the last three months, and will likely send at least as many more in the future. In addition to the artillery, Pyongyang is expected to send 150 more KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles to Moscow in 2025, said Budanov, adding that there were 148 sent last year.
In another TWZ article, it was reported that a North Korean multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS), designed to be disguised as an ordinary truck, appears to have surfaced in Russia’s Kursk region. Once the fighting begins, this MLRS could maneuver more freely, blending in as a normal truck before quickly firing, relocating, and repeating the process. This tactic complicates the enemy’s targeting plans significantly.
However, this type of artillery has notable limitations. Compared to traditional MLRS, it is far less mobile outside of established roads, which could hinder its operational flexibility. Besides, it’s unclear if it features any kind of protection, even against small-arms fire and shrapnel.
A recent New York Times article “Fighting Alongside Russia, North Koreans Wage Their Own War” examined the strategies and mindset of North Korean soldiers engaged in combat against Ukrainian forces. These troops navigate through heavily mined fields under intense fire, often advancing in groups of 40 or more. Once they capture a position, they do not stay to secure it, instead retreating to regroup for another attack, leaving Russian reinforcements to take over.
To counter drones, the North Koreans reportedly send one soldier to lure the drone while others try to destroy it. Severely injured soldiers are said to carry grenades to avoid being taken prisoner, detonating them as a last resort. Ukrainian military intelligence indicates that approximately 500 North Korean officers, including at least three generals, have been deployed. The generals are stationed at Russian command and control centers to oversee operations. Although these troops provide additional manpower, integrating them into Russian operations has been challenging.
Other news:
The Insider's investigation found that nine European industrial companies continue operations in Russia, with at least two of them working with military factories. Manufacturers from the Czech Republic, as well as Poland, Sweden, and Switzerland, which previously collaborated with defense factories in Russia, continue to supply equipment to the Russian defense industry through affiliated Russian companies (the full text is available in Russian).
Russia has managed to purchase over 22,000 CNC (computer numerical control) machines, components, and consumables worth $18.2 billion between 2023 and the first seven months of 2024, according to research by the Economic Security Council of Ukraine (ESCU). Without CNC machines, manufacturing any weapon would be impossible, making their procurement critical to sustaining Russian aggression. According to customs payment data, the top three manufacturing countries are: China — over 62% of all imports, valued at $2.6 billion; Taiwan — 8.9%, valued at $371 million; South Korea — 5.47%, valued at $228 million.
Nearly a tenth of Russia's imports came from European manufacturers. Russia acquired over 10,000 CNC machines worth $405 million, including: Italy — 4,459 machines worth $168.8 million; Germany — 2,849 machines worth $139.9 million.
Russia is rearming effectively and will pose a “serious military threat” to NATO with conventional weapons by 2028, Christian Freuding, head of the Ukrainian Situation Center at Germany’s Defense Ministry, said in an interview with Welt am Sonntag. “Each month, the Russian military gains more tanks, ammunition, missiles, and drones. Production is increasing, and stockpiles are growing”.
The new Syrian government has terminated an investment agreement with a Russian company to manage the port of Tartus, where Russia’s only foreign naval base is located. A military cargo ship that had been loitering just off the coast has now berthed at the Russian naval pier, where military vehicles are staged for a likely evacuation. Tartus is home to Russia’s only foreign naval base. After the outbreak of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, the base became an important hub for the Russian Navy’s military presence in the Mediterranean.
According to the investigation by the Azerbaijan-based international news channel AnewZ, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was downed by a missile on 25 December fired from a Pantsir-S1 air defence system which was brought from Syria to Russia.
President Trump has accused Russia of stealing U.S. plans for a hypersonic missile during the administration of President Barack Obama. Trump offered no evidence to back up his claim, but he previously raised the accusation in 2023.
The Kremniy El plant, one of Russia’s largest manufacturers of microelectronics, has suspended operations after being hit by a Ukrainian drone attack on Jan. 24.
Fantastic! Sign me up! I am so tired of people telling me the U.S. isn't Russia, the hell it's not. We are in denial, we are Russia 25 years ago.