Drone warfare in Ukraine: ground, river and sea drone trends
Four key stories: January 30 - February 11, 2026
Ukraine is known for its successful use of ground and waterborne unmanned vehicles against the enemy. These systems are considered among the best in the world in their respective domains — cheaper, and often more effective than their Western counterparts.
At the same time, Russia is developing similar systems. While we have not yet seen many notable successes on their side, once Russia identifies a viable solution, it is likely to scale it rapidly, as it did with Shahed-type drones, fiber-optic drones, KABs, and the adoption of Starlink.
In this edition:
Ground Drones in 2026: What to Expect;
Small and Agile Systems: The Role of River and Naval Drones in Ukraine;
Russia’s Gerbera Drones as FPV Carriers;
Is the Starlink Whitelist an Effective Solution?
5+ additional developments in drone warfare in Ukraine and Russia.
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Ground Drones in 2026: What to Expect
Some weeks ago, we saw an awesome video of the Ukrainian Droid TW-7.62 ground robotic system, based on the NUMO platform, that captured three Russian soldiers. The video was shared by the manufacturer, Ukrainian company DevDroid.
I connected with the company and asked for their assessment of trends in ground drone development in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. “From a technological perspective, 2026 will be a year of evolutionary rather than revolutionary change,” the company said.
And here is what we can expect from ground drones in the coming months:
1. Increased range and speed
The first and most fundamental challenge for Ukraine’s Armed Forces is the expanding kill zone. If earlier tactical and technical specifications for unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) assumed an operational range of 5–7 km, this is no longer sufficient. Real combat tasks now require a one-way range of up to 20 km.
At the same time, speed requirements are also increasing. The optimal speed must be 40–50 km/h; otherwise, these platforms become easy targets.
For manufacturers, this means working simultaneously with several complex parameters: energy consumption, communication stability, drivetrain reliability, and platform survivability.
2. UGVs as the backbone of battlefield logistics
The second key trend is the growing logistical role of UGVs. In some combat areas, up to 90% of logistical tasks are already performed by ground robots: ammunition resupply, evacuation, and equipment delivery.
Human resources have limits. Operators often conduct two to three missions in a row. In reality, units are sometimes forced to pause operations for several days simply because operators are physically exhausted.
This directly leads to the next major trend.
3. Transition to semi-autonomy
In 2026, UGVs will inevitably move toward semi-autonomous modes. This is one of the most technically complex challenges ahead.
Civilian autonomous vehicles operate on paved roads, with lane markings, traffic lights, and predictable environments. UGVs, by contrast, operate off-road, under fire, and in conditions of unstable communications.
Full autonomy will not yet be achieved, but the first functional solutions—of varying quality—will appear. This will serve as a starting point for reducing operator workload and scaling UGV use.
4. Countering FPV drones
Another serious challenge is protecting UGVs from FPV drones. Previously, the primary reliance in this area was on electronic warfare. However, the battlefield is seeing a growing number of “loitering” FPV drones that can wait for targets for extended periods, as well as fiber-optic FPVs that are immune to traditional jamming methods.
As a result, developers will increasingly focus on finding new solutions to protect UGVs from FPV threats.
5. Combined combat operations
The next stage of evolution is multi-domain operations. Coordinated use of ground and aerial unmanned systems significantly increases the effectiveness of firepower and enables faster and more precise responses to battlefield threats.
When an enemy group is detected, a machine-gun-equipped ground robot moves in first, using suppressive fire to pin the enemy down. A second robot armed with a grenade launcher then advances, engaging targets with fragmentation effects within a radius of approximately 25 meters. FPV drones are used to eliminate what remains.
If FPV drones are deployed first, the enemy tends to disperse and hide, making detection—especially in wooded terrain—much more difficult. This is why sequencing matters: machine gun first, then grenade launcher, followed by FPVs, delivers better results.
In combat scenarios, ground robotic systems can also function as carrier platforms—acting as “mother drones” for FPVs.
6. From improvised solutions to mass platforms
While improvised systems dominated at the beginning of the war, the market is now moving toward scalable platforms. This includes adaptations based on serially produced equipment—such as quad bikes, pickup trucks, and heavier carriers—modified to meet combat requirements.
In October 2025, DevDroid created a universal “operating system”, Droid Box, to accelerate UGV development. The Droid Box is the "brain" of a ground drone, responsible for all key functions, including communication, control, and integration of combat modules.
Also, the company is integrating an AI-driven optical detection system into its ground robotic complexes.
Read my previous report on their work here: Ground Drones as Mini-Artillery Systems: DevDroid.
And here is my assessment of general drone trends in 2025: Drone Warfare in Ukraine: Key Trends of 2025.
Small and Agile Systems: The Role of River and Naval Drones in Ukraine
Ukrainian outlet Militarnyi published an insightful interview with Velbot, Commander of the 443rd Separate Naval Division “Neptun Shadow” of the 9th Brigade of the Unmanned Systems Forces. He shared insights on the use of maritime and river drones in Ukraine. Here is my summary of this interview.