Arms Trends in Ukraine: 30 June - 06 July, 2025
Halted U.S. supplies and their alternatives; anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine's defense procurement
Last week, one of our biggest worries came true: the U.S. administration halted military deliveries to Ukraine, just when they are critically needed to protect civilians from massive Russian attacks. On the night of July 4, more than 550 drones and missiles were launched against Ukraine. Estimates suggest that Russia can launch up to 1,000 drones per night.
At the same time, several joint defense projects between the Ukrainian and American private sectors are underway. Just last week, a new agreement was signed on joint drone production. Ukraine now counts on “the voice of business” to strengthen bilateral relations.
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Foreign Aid
U.S.-provided Patriot air defense systems remain essential to Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian ballistic missile attacks.
On July 1, the Pentagon halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low - Politico reported. The decision also affects the suspension of shipments that had already arrived in Poland, including over two dozen PAC-3 Patriot missiles, more than two dozen Stinger air-defense systems, Hellfire air-to-ground missiles, and over 90 AIM air-to-air missiles intended for use with Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said it had received no official notice about stopping or delaying US military aid shipments.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the move 'best contribution to the cause of peace'.
Now, according to reports, Ukraine plans to ask Washington to let Europe purchase U.S. weapons for Kyiv. Several European countries are exploring plans to buy US-made weapons from their defense budgets for Ukraine.
According to analysts, weapons previously supplied to Ukraine will likely last until the end of the summer, while in the worst-case scenario, the stock of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems could be depleted within a week or two. Read more about Ukraine’s urgent need for Patriot systems in my recent newsletter.
The U.S. hasn’t just paused military aid to Ukraine: this is a reassessment of how production is allocated, and the option of buying doesn’t solve the issue, Defense Express reports.
Officially, during a briefing, spokesperson Sean Parnell stated that aid to Ukraine and several other countries has been suspended because the DoD is undergoing a review to ensure that U.S. military assistance aligns with American defense priorities.
The suspension of deliveries also affects the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI): the weapons that had been contracted with manufacturers and were expected to be delivered through 2027. This is not aid from U.S. military stockpiles, but rather newly produced equipment or refurbished non-standard weaponry.
There is a significant risk that Washington will decide to reallocate the production of 600 MSE missiles for Patriot systems so that they are directed to the U.S. Army and to fulfill long-standing export contracts, with only a symbolic 1% going to Ukraine.
The same applies to the 40,000 units of 155mm artillery shells currently produced monthly in the U.S. This also extends to all other types of weaponry, which will now be distributed under the “America First” principle.
Zelensky had a phone conversation with Trump on July 4. Refering to its sources, Axios reported that Trump was aware of the recent Russia escalation, including both air strikes on Ukrainian cities and on the frontline. "Trump said he wants to help with air defense and that he will check what was put on hold, if anything".
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth unilaterally halted a weapons shipment to Ukraine on July 2 despite internal military assessments showing the aid would not compromise American military readiness, NBC News reported on July 4, citing three U.S. officials.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on July 4 called on the United States to show "flexibility" in its military aid to Ukraine
🇩🇪 German Chancellor Merz discussed his country's offer to buy Patriot air defence systems for Ukraine with Trump.
Berlin expects a commitment from U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to provide two Patriot systems, which will be financed by Germany, reports Bild.
Merz still does not rule out the possibility of supplying German-Swedish Taurus cruise missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
🇩🇪 Germany will allocate more than €9 billion in aid to Ukraine in 2025.
🇸🇪 The Swedish government approved a new military aid package for Ukraine worth 1.5 billion Swedish kronor (approximately 130 million euros). The aid includes weapons, as well as Volvo and Scania trucks aimed at improving logistics.
The package includes:
Over 10 new barrels for Archer self-propelled artillery systems;
Long-range and underwater vehicles;
Volvo and Scania trucks, along with a new container system designed to accelerate equipment unloading.
The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Sida (Styrelsen för Internationellt Utvecklingssamarbete), allocated a new aid package of 590 million hryvnias (14 billion dollars) to strengthen Ukraine's cybersecurity.
Joint Initiatives
According to Zelensky, Ukraine signed an agreement with several American companies on the joint production of drones, in particular interceptor drones. In Denmark, Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov and the CEO of American Swift Beat, Eric Schmidt, signed a memorandum on a long-term strategic partnership.