Arms Trends in Ukraine: 26 May - 01 June, 2025
AI-controlled air-defense turret, long-range missiles, and the SBU operation
Russia attacked Ukraine with a record number of drones in a single night, but missed a major operation unfolding on its own territory around the same time. The unforgettable first day of summer was orchestrated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) through a drone operation that took 1.5 years to plan and resulted in the destruction of over 40 Russian strategic aircraft across four airfields. So, Ukraine does have some cards after all.
The latest developments have made me realize that now is the right time to launch the fundraising campaign for a night-vision drone for my university friend Vasyl. He’s neither in the SBU nor in any of the well-known elite units. Vasyl has been serving in a regular infantry battalion for over three years. Anyone who has served in the military knows that being in the infantry is especially tough.
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Military Transfers to Ukraine
On May 26, German Chancellor Merz said that Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States had lifted all restrictions on Ukraine regarding the range of strikes. “This means that Ukraine can now defend itself, including strikes on military targets in Russia.”
Later, Merz clarified that his statement did not reflect a recent policy shift, leaving it unclear to what extent the targeting restrictions imposed by other countries last fall are still in effect. In November 2024, it was reported that the governments of France and the United Kingdom had authorized Ukrainian forces to strike targets on Russian territory using SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
Despite nuclear threats from Putin, ATACMS and Storm Shadows were both already used to strike targets in Russia in fall of 2024.
Ukraine is thought to have received “less than 50” ATACMS (both older, shorter-range M39 missiles and newer variants) by fall 2024, and likely expended multiple missiles on more than a half-dozen known strikes. It’s believed Ukraine has received a few hundred Storm Shadows, including 40 delivered by France this January, as reported by Forbes.
Kremlin commented that “the intention of some European countries to lift range restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine is a rather dangerous decision”.
Additional developments:
Germany unveiled a military aid package for Ukraine worth 5 billion euros ($5.65 billion). The German newspaper Welt reported that the package includes about 400 million euros ($450 million) for the production of Ukrainian long-range BARS and AN-196 drones and Flamingo interceptor drones. According to Germany’s Ministry of Defense, the first units could be operational within weeks of financing.
According to the Defense Express, Germany has up to 479 Taurus missiles, not all of which are currently operational. Their maintenance in service is planned until 2045, while plans for the new Taurus Neo have stalled.
The AN-196 Liutyi drone has an operational range of 1,000 to 2,000 kilometers. A potential decision by Germany to invest in Ukraine’s development of long-range weaponry may indeed be a better option than continuing to look for public excuses not to transfer the Taurus missiles. Moreover, it is also an investment in Germany’s own defense capabilities, as the country currently lacks an adequate foundation for producing long-range cruise missiles.
Germany’s package further contains four IRIS-T air defense systems and funding for contracts for the repair of military vehicles in Ukraine, namely Gepard air defenses. Berlin also pledged to help finance the operations of the Starlink satellite communications system in Ukraine.
Sweden allocated 4.8 billion Swedish Kronor (about $504 million) to Ukraine to strengthen its defence capabilities. This includes contributions to several capability coalitions:
Demining Capability Coalition: SEK 100 million (about US$10.5 million).
Drone Coalition: SEK 300 million (about US$31.5 million).
Maritime Capability Coalition: SEK 50 million (about US$5.2 million). The Swedish contribution will help fund training for Ukrainian Navy personnel.
IT Coalition: SEK 30 million (about US$3.1 million). The funds will be used to purchase equipment for the Ukrainian Delta system.
Additional funds are allocated to the Danish model of arms procurement, the purchase of armoured vehicle equipment, support for two multilateral ammunition procurement initiatives, including the Czech one, and the acquisition of air defence systems and long-range drones.
The Netherlands sent the remainder of the 24 F-16 fighter jets it had promised to Ukraine on May 26. Ukraine received its first F-16 jets from the Netherlands and Denmark in 2024.
Latvia delivered another 1,500 strike drones to Ukraine as part of the Drone Coalition.
IT Coalition member nations have attracted €1.1 billion in aid for Ukraine since the Coalition was established two years ago. With this funding, Ukraine enhances the Oberih registry and Reserve+ and Army+ apps. “We are providing units with reliable communication equipment and expanding the deployment of the DELTA combat system,” said the Deputy Minister of Defence for Digital Development.
The government of Switzerland allowed the Swiss defence contractor Ruag MRO to sell 71 Leopard 1 battle tanks to Germany. However, the tanks may expressly not be sold to Ukraine, as Swiss law prohibits the delivery of war materiel to countries involved in armed conflicts.
The Eurobarometer registered that 59% of surveyed participants agree with the EU financing the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine.
Serbian President Vucic on May 29 denied Russian foreign intelligence claims that Serbian defense enterprises continue to supply ammunition to Ukraine, despite Belgrade's stated neutrality. “We work only for Serbia," he said.
Turkey and Belgium are set to join the international Drone Coalition supporting Ukraine, Latvia's Defense Minister announced on May 28.
Domestic Production and Internal Affairs
Ukrainian engineers created a new kind of weapon called Sky Sentinel. It is an autonomous, AI-controlled air-defense turret, equipped with a heavy machine gun and capable of 360° rotation.