Arms Trends in Ukraine: 23 June - 29 June, 2025
Sapsan ballistic missile, new joint defense production projects, and the decline of arms control.
Not everything is about drones. SAPSAN (also known as Hrim-2) is a Ukrainian short-range ballistic missile system. According to Ukrainian officials, the missile has already been tested on the battlefield and has entered serial production.
While the current production numbers are likely low, what is critical for Ukraine is the ability to produce hundreds of these missiles annually. Both Russia and Ukraine have been vulnerable to ballistic attacks, and for Ukraine, having its own ballistic strike capability could significantly shift the dynamics on the battlefield.
For this week’s digest, I have curated news on multiple initiatives for joint defense production between European countries and Ukraine, updates on trends in the domestic defense tech sector, and two important columns addressing the pressing question of why Ukrainian defense producers are leaving the country.
This edition also features a special section on arms control efforts, or rather, the reversal of those efforts, highlighting how global disarmament norms are being eroded in the face of new security realities.
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Foreign Aid & Joint Initiatives
European countries are already working to integrate Ukraine into their defense industries and to leverage Ukraine’s experience from the war with Russia. This particularly applies to the drone manufacturing sector. If a few more countries invest additional funds into Ukraine’s defense industry, Ukraine will gain significantly from such support.
🇳🇴 Norway is taking the lead, with both the public and private sectors getting actively involved in support of Ukraine’s defense sector. The Norwegian government emphasized its commitment to supporting Ukraine’s most urgent defense priorities, including air defense, drones, artillery, and the procurement of equipment directly from the Ukrainian defense industry.
Last week, Norway announced the allocation of 6.5 billion Norwegian kroner (over 644 million US dollars) for the procurement of drones and related technologies from Ukrainian and European manufacturers. The Norwegian Ministry of Defence also announced that it would fund the development and production of maritime drones on Ukrainian territory.
🇩🇪 Germany will allocate over €100 million to Ukraine for the development of AN-196 strike drones, which have a range of over 2,000 kilometers. These so-called deep-strike drones are equipped with warheads and can cover distances exceeding 2,000 km. It is noted that with German funding, Ukraine could produce several hundred combat drones.
🇩🇰 Ukraine will launch defense production in Denmark. Denmark has already allocated $47 million for the project, and Ukraine's partners will provide further funding for production. “This will also provide the Danish Armed Forces with access to the latest technologies and the experience of Ukraine”.
🇳🇱 The Netherlands signed contracts for the production of 600,000 Ukrainian drones for Ukraine as part of the "Drone Line" initiative, with deliveries scheduled for this year. These contracts are part of a new Dutch aid package worth over €675 million. The package also includes the delivery of 100 additional radars for detecting UAVs and equipment for evacuating the wounded.
🇳🇱 The Dutch Defense Ministry will finance the production of 20 Ermine ground vehicles for Ukraine, German defense manufacturer Rheinmetall announced. Ukraine will become the first country in the world to receive these vehicles.
The Ermine, developed by Rheinmetall Defence Nederland, is designed primarily for front-line evacuation missions.
🇧🇪 The Belgian minehunter BNS Narcis and 🇳🇱 the Dutch minehunter Zr.Ms. Vlaardingen have been recently handed over to Ukraine.
🇮🇹 Italy commits $1.6 million to boost Ukraine’s battle against landmines. Ukraine has reduced its mined territory by over 20% since late 2022, but around 137,000 square kilometers — much of it farmland — remain hazardous.
🇬🇧 The United Kingdom will provide Ukraine with 350 ASRAAM missiles to boost its air defense capabilities, funded through interest accrued from frozen Russian assets. Valued at £70 million, these air-to-air missiles have been swiftly adapted for ground launch, with the conversion process completed in just three months.
Also, Ukraine and the United Kingdom have reached an agreement to jointly produce drones. Britain will finance the procurement of Ukrainian-designed drones manufactured in the UK. Read more in my newsletter here.
🇨🇦 Canada is considering the possibility of joint arms and military equipment production with Ukraine, the Canadian Defence Minister said. He noted that Ukrainians have made significant progress in drone technologies, “which we are watching very closely.” Canada is exploring cooperation based on the so-called “Danish model,” in which military equipment is manufactured in Ukraine using Canadian funding.
🇱🇻 Latvia delivered 1,300 domestically produced combat drones to the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is launching a joint arms production program with international partners under the name Defence City — both in Ukraine and in Ramstein-format partner countries. The corresponding draft law has already been registered and is expected to come into force by September.
Currently, there are 21 localization initiatives in Ukraine involving the world’s largest arms manufacturers, and up to ten projects abroad. They are all at different stages — some have already reached concrete agreements, others are still in negotiation. We're talking about countries like Denmark, the UK, Norway, and so on. According to Ukraine’s Defence Minister Umerov, a Ukrainian defense plant is expected to open in Denmark within the coming months.
🇺🇦 Ukraine's state defense conglomerate Ukroboronprom and European aerospace giant Airbus signed a cooperation memorandum at the Le Bourget International Air Show. The agreement launches initiatives to develop maintenance and repair capabilities for Airbus aircraft operating in Ukraine among specialists at Ukroboronprom's enterprises.
Under the memorandum, Airbus representatives will travel to Ukraine to assemble and lead training cohorts of engineers and technicians. Upon completion, these personnel will receive certified instructor status, enabling them to train additional Ukrainian specialists across the maintenance network.
Not all is positive in the countries’ decisions to transfer weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. For instance,
🇬🇧 The UK Ministry of Defence has rejected a proposal to transfer surplus Warrior infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, citing concerns over cost, suitability, and the added burden on Ukraine’s logistics and training systems. “As such, without substantial investment, they are not likely to offer significant capability to Ukraine, and providing such small numbers would only increase the diversity of Ukraine’s armoured vehicle fleet, increasing their logistic and training burdens”.
🇷🇸 Serbia is halting all ammunition exports as it faces challenges over exports to Israel and Moscow's suspicions that ammunition made in Serbia has made its way to Ukraine. Recently, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accused Serbia of exporting arms to Ukraine via third countries. It claimed that the assembly and loading of ammunition produced in Serbia “is carried out primarily in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria.”
Workers at Serbia’s defense industry plants are preparing to hold protests in response to the government’s decision to halt the sale of ammunition.
🇺🇸 Trump and Zelensky met at the NATO summit on June 25 and discussed possible US sales of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine and joint weapons production. Reportedly, Trump stated that the United States "should consider" selling Patriot air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine, as Ukraine's supply is limited.
Domestic Production and Internal Affairs of Ukraine
Ukraine needs short-range ballistic missiles, and the newly developed and tested Sapsan may be a solution to this pressing need.
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