Arms Trends in Ukraine: 12 May - 18 May, 2025
Lost arms deals, DELTA systems, and ceasefire talks
Ukraine’s urgent need for weapons and ammunition, especially in the early stages of the war, forced it to rely on intermediaries. As a result, military equipment worth $770 million has not been delivered. While the former authorities aimed to make defense procurement more transparent, they were criticized for exposing too much information. As Ukraine continues to search for a balance, particularly amid ongoing ammunition shortages, the role of brokers working with various suppliers is likely to remain significant.
More stories in this digest: the DELTA situational awareness system, now featuring a specialized chat for fast and secure information exchange between manufacturers and the military; promising defense cooperation projects; and the latest developments in ceasefire negotiations.
On May 16, I launched a new newsletter, Ukraine’s Military Marketplace, featuring overviews of locally produced items currently available on the Brave1 Market platform for direct purchase by military units. It highlights what’s available and what’s in demand.
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Military Transfers to Ukraine
A recent Financial Times investigation has revealed that hundreds of millions of dollars Kyiv allocated to foreign intermediaries for critical military supplies have been lost over the course of the war.
In several instances, large advance payments were made to obscure firms for equipment that has yet to materialize. In other cases, officials report that weapons purchased at heavily inflated prices were delivered in non-functional condition.
To date, Ukraine has paid out $770 million in advance to foreign arms brokers for weapons and ammunition that have yet to be delivered. This represents a substantial portion of its annual $6–8 billion defense budget funded from its own state resources since the full-scale invasion began.
Some foreign arms firms claim they’ve fallen victim to internal rivalries and corruption among Ukrainian officials and state-linked arms brokers, which may partly explain the disappearance of these funds.
Several senior former Ukrainian officials involved in arms procurement during the first three years of the war have defended the use of foreign intermediaries, arguing that these brokers were essential for securing critical and politically sensitive weapons deals. At the time, Ukraine urgently needed large volumes of ammunition from countries like Serbia, which, for geopolitical reasons, were unwilling to be seen supplying Kyiv directly.
One intermediary claims it became collateral damage in the broader dysfunction and internal rivalries that continue to plague Ukraine’s procurement system.
Former Defence Minister Reznikov told the Financial Times that “any faulty arms contracts were an unfortunate consequence of the urgency of arming Ukrainian soldiers fighting on the front lines at the start of the war”.
Additional developments:
On May 17, Denmark prepared its 26th military aid package for Ukraine, worth 4 billion Danish kroner (approximately $598 million). The package includes additional artillery and shells via the Czech ammunition initiative as well as equipment for fighter jets. A portion of the funds will also go towards increasing training capacity for Ukrainian forces.
Italy announced a significant new military aid package for Ukraine, including 400 M113 armored personnel carriers and an unspecified satellite surveillance system. Defense Express reports that it is unlikely that all 400 vehicles will be in operational condition. Some will likely be used for spare parts, while others will require major repairs, and so on.
Reportedly, all Caesar self-propelled howitzers produced in France throughout 2025 will be delivered to Ukraine. This commitment translates to 12 howitzers per month, totaling 144 units for the year.
In early April, Belgium announced its 1 bln EUR defense package for Ukraine. It is now known that the package will include over 16,000 weapons and artillery units, along with 20 upgraded Cerber air defense systems and a Leopard battle tank equipped with a modernized turret for testing purposes, five unmanned surface vessels, as well as other drones, helmets, medical equipment, portable drone detection systems, night vision goggles, and protective gear against chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats.
In addition, Belgium will invest in training Ukrainian technicians to service F-16 fighter jets as part of the international coalition, in cooperation with the Belgian defense industry. The country also supports the launch of production facilities for 70mm rockets in Ukraine, in collaboration with local companies. Software support is also being provided.
Poland is preparing the 47th military aid package for Ukraine worth €200 million, which will be delivered in the coming months.
Norway announced that all F-16 fighter jets promised to Ukraine will be delivered by the end of 2025. For reasons of Ukraine’s operational security, it was decided not to disclose how many Norwegian aircraft have been delivered. In July 2024, the Norwegian government decided to provide Ukraine with six F-16 fighter jets.
The British military is sending Ukrainian forces “Ikea-style” flat-packed decoys that look like air defence systems and tanks to trick the Russians into hitting fake targets - The Times reported. If the UK was providing five vehicles to Ukraine, the MoD would probably send as many as 30 decoys along with them, which would typically look real from a short distance of 25 metres away. Decoys are considered fundamental on the battlefield.
Previously, I reported on how Russia uses decoys in its drone warfare.
The EU will allocate 900 million euros ($1 billion) from profits generated by frozen Russian assets to fund weapons and ammunition for Ukraine.
Domestic Production and Internal Affairs
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine presented its DELTA system at the London Defence Conference. DELTA was developed in Ukraine back in 2016. It allows the military to plan operations and see the battlefield in real time, exchange information within a unit, brigade, group, and, if necessary, with allies.