Arms Trends in Ukraine: 07 Apr. - 13 Apr. 2025
F-16s, satellite terminal production, and EW breakthroughs among the week’s key developments.
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It has been a busy week with rather somber developments for Ukraine, as Russia continues to intensify its ballistic missile attacks on several Ukrainian cities, including Sumy. Reportedly, Russia also used cluster munitions in this deadly attack. Ukraine also suffered the loss of its second F-16 fighter jet in combat, along with the tragic death of a highly trained young pilot.
On a more positive note, the country received multiple military aid pledges from its partners during the Ramstein meeting on April 11, particularly from Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and others. Additionally, Ukraine has developed an effective solution to counter Russia’s glide bombs, previously considered nearly unstoppable. And finally, the country is moving forward with local satellite production — a significant step toward greater self-reliance in intelligence and communications.
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Military Transfers and Cooperation Between Ukraine and Its Partners
Last week, Ukraine unfortunately lost another F-16 fighter jet in combat. A 26-year-old pilot was killed. Pavlo Ivanov was one of the first Ukrainian F-16 pilots—a combat attack pilot who had carried out 130 combat missions before retraining.
BBC sources reported that the F-16 fighter jet was likely shot down by a Russian missile. In total, the Russians launched three missiles at the aircraft. It was either a guided anti-aircraft missile from an S-400 ground-based system or an air-to-air R-37 missile.
This marks Ukraine’s second loss of an F-16 jet. The first occurred in August 2024, just a couple of weeks after the jets were delivered. The WSJ wrote that the probable cause of the jet crash was friendly fire from a Patriot air defence system, although Ukraine has not officially reported this. The disaster may have been caused by the Link 16 friend and foe system, which was disabled on the Patriots handed over to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s first F-16s arrived at the start of August. The exact number of F-16 jets in Ukraine’s possession is unknown. In total, the Netherlands committed to providing Ukraine with 24 fighters as part of military aid. Reportedly, as of February 2025, Denmark had already transferred 12 of the 19 promised F-16 fighters. Additionally, Norway decided to donate 6 F-16s to Ukraine in the course of 2024.
Earlier this week, on April 8, Belgium announced the decision to grant Ukraine a new bilateral aid package of one billion euros ($1.10 billion) in 2025. Belgium will deliver two F-16s for spare parts this year and certainly deliver two fighter planes next year. Belgium would provide Ukraine with 30 fighters by the end of 2028.
The F-16, while not as advanced as the U.S. F-35 or Russia’s Su-57, offers Ukraine a reliable platform to challenge Russian air operations, especially when paired with Western munitions like the AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missile, designed to knock out enemy radar. It was reported that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter pilot shot down six enemy cruise missiles in a single combat mission during a massive Russian attack in December 2024.
According to President Zelenskyy, Ukraine needs at least 128 F-16s.
Ukraine's European partners announced new military aid during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) meeting on April 11. Participating states pledged to increase military assistance to Ukraine by a total of €21 billion.
Germany will provide Ukraine with 4 IRIS-T air defense systems, 33 missiles for the systems, 120 man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), 25 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 15 Leopard tanks, 14 artillery systems, and 130,000 155mm artillery shells. German Defence Minister Pistorius stated that Germany recently provided 30 Patriot missiles to Ukraine as well.
Germany and the United Kingdom (UK) are establishing an electronic warfare (EW) coalition for Ukraine.
The UK MoD announced a military aid package worth 450 million pounds (about $588 million). The aid package is aimed at financing the "rapid" delivery of FPV drones procured from British and Ukrainian suppliers. In addition, the funds will be used to acquire radar systems, anti-tank mines, and for the repair and maintenance of vehicles and equipment.
Estonia will deliver 10,000 155mm artillery shells and 750,000 rations packages to Ukraine.
The Netherlands will provide 150 million euros (about $170 million) to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses.
Lithuania will allocate 20 million euros (about $22 million) to Ukraine for the purchase of ammunition.
On April 8, it was announced that Canada had sent 40,000 engines for decommissioned CRV-7 air defense missiles to Ukraine.
On April 7, Norway announced allocating more than NOK 4 billion (€240 million or about US$0.36 billion) through the Czech initiative to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine and another NOK 1 billion (€60.18 million or about US$90 million) through the European Peace Fund.
Norway will allocate €830m to train the Ukrainian brigade. The project is being implemented jointly with the Nordic and Baltic countries. It is not about creating a new unit, but about reinforcing the already existing Ukrainian brigades with smaller units that can be quickly integrated.
The Czech government said that all of its 86 Soviet-era T72M1 tanks have now been provided to Ukraine as it works to replace them with Leopard 2A4s bought from Germany and Switzerland.
Ukraine recently proposed purchasing "30 to 50 billion" (likely USD) worth of air defense and weapons systems from the United States. Among other things, Ukraine has asked the United States for at least ten air defence systems. Ukraine is prepared to purchase these systems itself, either through direct payment to the United States or through the fund established by the potential US-Ukrainian minerals deal.
The EU plans to allocate €1bn from Russian frozen asset revenues to strengthen Ukraine's defence industry. The majority of the funds will be used to purchase weapons, ammunition, and air defence systems for Ukraine in the form of grants.
Some types of foreign-made weapons received by Ukraine are not being used due to their ineffectiveness - Deputy Head of the Parliament’s Committee on National Security. For example, Excalibur — a GPS-guided artillery shell that costs tens of thousands of dollars- has proven ineffective under the conditions of electronic warfare. At first, they were effective, but then the Russians learned how to counter them.
Ukrainian front-line units are struggling with several German-supplied weapons systems due to technical vulnerabilities, limited spare parts availability, and complicated maintenance, Spiegel reported. The Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer, described as "outstanding" in performance, was said to be so technically sensitive that its "suitability for combat is seriously questionable." The Leopard 1A5, though labeled "reliable," is reportedly deployed more as improvised artillery due to its inadequate armor. Meanwhile, the more advanced Leopard 2A6 often cannot be repaired on the front due to its costly maintenance and logistical demands.
Sweden intends to purchase drones in Poland for Ukraine’s needs. It was not specified which types of drones were to be ordered from Grupa WB. Both strike drones produced by WB – Warmate – and reconnaissance drones, FlyEye, are in operation in Ukraine.
Domestic Defense Production, Joint Ventures, and Internal Affairs
Ukrainian company Stetman has signed an agreement with Swedish company ReQuTech for licensed mass production of satellite terminals in Ukraine.