Arms Trends in Ukraine: 05 May - 11 May, 2025
Export opening, secret military transfers, and ceasefire prospects.
While all eyes are on the potential Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Türkiye, it appears that Ukraine is also preparing for a gradual opening of its defense exports. This move could attract more foreign investment and, as a result, significantly enhance Ukraine’s defense production capabilities. ZBROYARI: Manufacturing Freedom initiative attracted over $1.5 billion to Ukraine's defense industry from foreign partners in 2024. The project's goal is to raise $10 billion over the year, which appears achievable if certain conditions, such as the lifting of the export ban, are met.
I close this edition with an overview of an insightful speech by General Zaluzhnyi, in which he says that the nature of modern warfare no longer aligns with the way NATO forces currently operate. Under current conditions, none of the states, including the US, will be able to secure their own independence across the full range of modern defence technologies. That’s why there is a need for new security alliances.
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Military Transfers to Ukraine
This section of my newsletter has already been shrinking over the past year due to a shift in priorities, from direct military transfers to strengthening Ukraine’s domestic defense industry. In light of recent developments, it may eventually disappear altogether, as European leaders increasingly move to withhold details of the military aid they provide.
On May 10, German Chancellor Merz announced that Berlin will reduce public disclosure of military aid to Ukraine, citing the need for “strategic ambiguity” to avoid giving Russia a tactical advantage. Under former Chancellor Scholz, the government of Germany regularly published detailed lists of weapons supplied to Ukraine.
Merz emphasized that while the issue remains of legitimate public interest, operational security concerns now outweigh the need for transparency. He specifically addressed speculation over the potential delivery of Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine — a topic that has drawn significant attention in Germany and Ukraine. He declined to confirm or deny whether the missiles would be supplied, citing the new policy of discretion on arms transfers.
If Taurus missiles are delivered, we will likely learn about it only after they are used, when the enemy showcases their debris, as was the case with certain weapons in 2022, writes Defence Express.
President Macron emphasized that, for the sake of the Ukrainian people, it is better not to publicly disclose the exact quantity or type of weapons each country is providing.
Some countries, Finland, for example, have not disclosed the specifics of the military aid packages provided to Ukraine since the early days of the war.
Additional developments:
The most recent military aid package to Ukraine was announced by Germany on May 6. It includes: 66 MRAP armored combat vehicles; ammunition for LEOPARD 2 tanks; 4 vehicles with Diehl Defense kinetic protection systems; 38,000 GEPARD anti-aircraft rounds; missiles for the IRIS-T SLM air defense system; 3 Zuzana 2 wheeled howitzers; 27,000 155mm artillery shells; 1,000 122mm artillery shells; 70 VECTOR reconnaissance drones with repair kits; 10 HF-1 strike UAVs; 10 ground-based drones; 6 Bergepanzer 2 tracked armored recovery vehicles with spare parts; 4 WISENT 1 mine-clearing vehicles with spare parts; 2 mine-clearing plows.
On May 9, the United States granted approval for Germany to transfer 125 long-range artillery rockets and 100 Patriot air-defense missiles to Ukraine - The NYT reported. The critically needed weapons are made in the United States and cannot be exported — even if another country owns them — without American government approval.
The UK will deliver five more British-made Raven missile systems to boost Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. Raven air defense missile system, often referred to as “Frankensam” due to its hybrid configuration, represents a sophisticated and highly mobile ground-based defense solution tailored to Ukraine’s battlefield requirements. Built on the robust Supacat HMT 600 6x6 chassis, Raven offers excellent mobility and rapid deployment. It is well-suited to intercepting low-flying and maneuverable aircraft, including Russian Su-25 ground attack jets and Ka-52 attack helicopters, as well as loitering munitions and tactical drones.
Swedish combat boats Combat Boat 90 (CB90), provided to Ukraine by its allies, have proven to be a real asset for the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces. This is evidenced both by the results of their use and by the feedback from the soldiers themselves, according to Ukraine's Defence Intelligence (HUR).
The boats are actively used for reconnaissance, logistical support, troop landing, and supporting operations in strategically important areas, particularly on Snake Island. Thanks to their high speed, maneuverability, and compact size, the CB90s have become a crucial component of special maritime operations.
The design of the Swedish boat ensures excellent seaworthiness, high speed, and safety even in extreme conditions. The vessel can carry up to 21 fully equipped soldiers and up to 4.5 tonnes of cargo.
The manufacturer of the boats, Swedish company Saab, has developed new remotely operated weapon stations with enhanced protection specifically for the CB90.
As part of the latest support package, the Swedish government has committed to upgrading Ukraine’s boats with these systems, as well as integrating radar systems for monitoring maritime and airspace.
European Union member states committed to providing Ukraine with at least 1.35 million shells by the end of the year, and efforts to increase this number are ongoing.
Domestic Defense Production and Internal Affairs
According to numerous reports, Ukraine is preparing to officially launch defense exports. While currently military exports from Ukraine are not officially banned, in practice, it is well known that authorities simply will not issue permits for the export of defense materiel.
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