Arms Trends in Ukraine: 03 Mar. - 09 Mar. 2025
The latest developments in Ukraine's defence production, arms transfers, U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, and on the battlefield.

Alarming developments regarding the pause in U.S. military aid to Ukraine and the suspension of intelligence sharing with the Ukrainian military have motivated Russia to take advantage of this situation, launching an offensive in Ukraine and targeting the Ukrainian salient in Sudzha. The invaders are deploying extra resources to put pressure on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and launching massive missile and drone attacks aimed at overwhelming Ukraine’s air defenses. Amid this double pressure from the enemy, as well as a former ally, Ukraine is ramping up its cooperation with European partners, particularly with Nordic and Baltic states. Last week, Norway announced an increase in its military budget to support Ukraine, while Sweden plans a new military aid package focusing on strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses.
This weekly newsletter has 5 sections: military transfers and cooperation between Ukraine and partners; military production and internal affairs of Ukraine; major developments on the battlefield and beyond; opinion and analysis; and other news in the region.
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Military Transfers and Cooperation Between Ukraine and Its Partners
A recent SIPRI report reveals that Ukraine became the world's top importer of major arms from 2020 to 2024, with imports surging nearly 100-fold compared to 2015–2019. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, at least 35 countries provided military aid to Ukraine, with additional shipments expected. During this period, Ukraine accounted for 8.8% of global arms imports. The largest supplier was the United States, contributing 45%, followed by Germany at 12% and Poland at 11%.
However, last week's developments could significantly reshape this trend. US President Trump paused all US military aid to Ukraine on March 3. All US military equipment not in Ukraine was paused, including weapons in transit on aircraft and ships or waiting in transit areas in Poland. The U.S. will continue to suspend weapon supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine until a date for peace talks with Russia is set, White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said.
Additionally, on March 5, the US cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine. At first, according to reports, the suspension of the transfer of US intelligence to Ukraine was "selective" and concerned data that would allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia. However, later nearly all intelligence sharing with Ukraine was stopped, including information crucial for air raid alerts.
The extent of the US suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine remains unclear. Reportedly, NATO members are not prohibited from sharing some US intelligence with Ukraine but that such sharing could be very limited.
Politico writes that about 80% of intelligence for Ukraine came from allies, mainly the United States. After the suspension of such cooperation, the UK is trying to fill this gap with its own surveillance assets. Now France is also offering assistance.
Kremlin officials announced their intention of taking advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to make additional battlefield gains. Medvedev stated that Russia's "main task" remains "inflicting maximum damage" on Ukraine "on the ground.
The graph by the Institute for the Study of War illustrates how Russia escalated drone and missile attacks on Ukraine following Trump's inauguration and the resulting shift in U.S. policy.
A source in the Ukrainian government stated that the suspension has impacted Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast the most and that Ukraine has lost the ability to detect the approach of Russian bombers and other warplanes as they take off inside Russia. As a result, Ukraine has less time to warn civilians and military personnel about the risk of an approaching airstrike or missile.
According to a report by the Ukrainian outlet Ekonomichna Pravda, access to data has become more difficult, but operational planning continues as the Ukrainian military seeks additional alternatives. Alternative means of obtaining satellite data from American and European private companies on a commercial basis remain available. "Images are expensive, but they can be purchased. A black-and-white image covering 25x25 kilometers, with a modest resolution of 50 centimeters per pixel, costs $350. Thousands of such images are needed for various branches of the military."
Eutelsat already supports government and institutional communications in Ukraine, and told Reuters that it can provide an alternative for certain government and defence applications. Eutelsat, which now operates up to 600 LEO satellites after acquiring OneWeb, claims its service matches Starlink in Europe.
According to the analysis by Wired, there are good alternatives to Starlink, such as OneWeb, Project Kuiper, and IRIS2. However, they will struggle to replicate Starlink's coverage and usability.
According to Ukrainian sources, even before Donald Trump, the US had been restricting Ukraine’s access to intelligence data related to long-range drone strikes. As a result, the military has long been incentivized to seek alternative ways of obtaining the necessary imagery from enemy territory and to establish bilateral relationships with space companies.
Additional developments:
Safran.AI will provide Ukraine with a data processing platform for analyzing French satellite images. Safran.AI is the research and technology center of the Safran Group, a French multinational specializing in aerospace, defense, and security.
Ukraine has received 752 million pounds ($970 million) as the first installment of the U.K.'s contribution to the G7 loan covered by frozen Russian assets.