Arms Trends in Ukraine: 03 Feb. - 09 Feb. 2025
Exploring military transfers to Ukraine, its domestic defense production, and major battlefield developments.
This week's digest focuses on significant updates, including the development of laser weapons in Ukraine and the future of U.S. military aid, which has faced multiple delays and a slow pace in the past. Another important topic throughout this newsletter is the increasing deployment of unmanned ground vehicles, aimed at addressing Ukraine's main challenge—lack of personnel. Last year, approximately 65 models of ground robotic complexes of various types and purposes were codified and approved for operation, almost all of which are of Ukrainian production. This week's news suggests that the Ukrainian military has begun integrating full-fledged robotic units into its frontline brigades.
Let’s dive deeper!
Military Transfers and Cooperation Between Ukraine and Its Partners
According to Ukraine’s military officials, approximately 70% of the weaponry used on the battlefield by the Defense Forces consists of international military aid. Now, Ukraine needs support from its partners, especially in supplying weapons and equipment that it does not produce or produces in insufficient quantities, such as air defense systems, heavy armored vehicles, and NATO-caliber artillery ammunition.
Last week, two separate reports by Reuters touched upon the delivery of military aid from the United States. Zelensky recently tallied U.S. weapons packages as about 40% of Ukraine’s total arms supply. According to the German Kiel Institute, the US allocated 88.33 billion euros ($92bn) to Ukraine from January 2022 to October 31, 2024.
Reportedly, the Biden administration slowed Ukraine arms shipments until his term was nearly done. By November, just about half of the total dollar amount the U.S. had promised in 2024 from American stockpiles had been delivered, and only about 30% of promised armored vehicles had arrived by early December, according to two congressional aides.
In the final 12 months of Biden’s term, Ukraine lost nearly all the land it regained in its largely inconclusive 2023 counteroffensive. Some analysts said there was no clear link between the delays in U.S. aid and Ukraine's territorial losses: Kyiv's inability to fix other challenges – issues of manpower, morale and how Ukraine uses the weapons it already has – were more to blame.
However, it’s also important to note that the deliveries of the promised large amounts of weaponry were not happening right away. Oleksandra Ustinova, Ukrainian lawmaker, and the head of the temporary parliamentary commission on foreign military aid, commented “Every time we're asking for something, it comes six, nine months later when the war has already changed.”
The actual deliveries, Ustinova said, were slow and sporadic.
Additionally, several accounting mistakes were made on the U.S. side. In July 2024, the Pentagon found $2 billion worth of additional errors in its calculations for ammunition, missiles, and other equipment sent to Ukraine, increasing the improperly valued material to a total of $8.2 billion.
Since Donald Trump took office, no packages have been announced, but shipments authorized by Biden were thought to continue to flow - and would for months - due to the backlog. The shipments, however, were briefly paused in recent days as the Trump administration debated its policy toward Kyiv. The revelation of the brief pause is the first outward sign of the intensity of the debate within the Trump administration regarding the future of US military aid to Ukraine.
President Trump recently offered to cut a deal with Ukraine by giving it weapons and aid in return for its “rare earths and other things.” Ukraine is home to 20 of the world’s critical minerals and metals like titanium used in the aerospace and defense industries and lithium, an essential component of electric vehicle batteries. President Zelensky has already positioned Ukraine’s natural materials as part of a peace plan. Reportedly, Zelensky’s team had even delayed a deal on critical materials with former President Joe Biden’s team so it could offer it to Trump in case he won the elections.
Additional developments:
Latvian industry started production of Patria 6×6 armored personnel carriers for Ukraine.
Lithuania donated trucks and spare parts for American M113 armored personnel carriers to the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Ukraine got French Mirage fighter jets, and more F-16s from the Netherlands. These modern combat aircraft have already arrived in Ukraine and will soon begin carrying out combat missions.
According to French media, the first batch of Mirage will include three jets equipped with Scalp cruise missiles and AASM bombs. Overall, Ukraine has requested the transfer of 12 such aircraft.
The French Mirage 2000 is somewhat outdated, as France is transitioning to the more modern Rafale. However, its main advantage remains its ability to launch long-range Scalp cruise missiles, which is crucial for striking targets deep behind enemy lines. The American F-16s that Ukraine has received are not compatible with these missiles.
The UK appears to be helping to develop two uncrewed maritime vessels (UMV) for use by Ukrainian forces, which have achieved notable successes against Russian naval assets in the Black Sea through the use of UMVs functioning as one-way attack munitions. Revealed in a pair of UK parliamentary written responses on 4 February 2025, UK Minister for Defence Procurement, Maria Eagle, made mention of “Wasp” and “Snapper” UMV programs.
Ukraine is negotiating to localize the production of various Czech weapons.
Ukraine and Poland will cooperate in the production of ammunition, maintenance of armored vehicles and artillery, and strengthening of air defense.
Ukraine’s Military Production and Internal Affairs
The major development of the past week is Ukraine’s announcement of the development and testing of a laser weapon capable of shooting down targets from over a mile away.
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